The Arizona State Sun Devils entered the season projected near the bottom of the Big 12, while the Oklahoma State Cowboys were seen as a top contender. But as they prepare to face off on Saturday, the storyline has shifted dramatically, with the Cowboys struggling and the Sun Devils thriving in their new conference home.
Our Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State prediction covers all the key details, from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State Betting Preview
All Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oklahoma State -1.5 - Spread
Arizona State -4.5 - Moneyline
Arizona State -198, Oklahoma State +164 - Over/Under
57 points - Game time
7 p.m. ET - Location
Boone Pickens Stadium | Stillwater, OK - Predicted Weather at Kick
64 degrees, cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms, 10 mph winds - How to Watch
FS1
Ahead of their transition to the Big 12, Arizona State faced Oklahoma State in a home-and-home schedule the past two seasons, losing by a double-digit margin each time. That allowed the Cowboys to pull ahead in the all-time series, with five games split 3-2 in Oklahoma State’s favor. However, with the current state of each program, the Sun Devils are favored in Week 10.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Underestimated for much of the 2024 season despite early results, Arizona State have only been favored three times prior to their matchup with Oklahoma State. They won each time. When they win, the Sun Devils cover, with their only failure to cover the spread this year coming in losses. Oklahoma State has covered just three times this year, matching their overall record.
Arizona State’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Arizona State has a 47.5% chance of beating Oklahoma State on Saturday night. While that’s a different mindset to DraftKings, it’s worth noting that our metric forecast the Sun Devils’ win over the Texas State Bobcats and Utah Utes when they were made underdogs by the oddsmakers.
The remaining win probabilities for Arizona State in the 2024 season are below:
- at Oklahoma State: 47.5%
- vs. UCF: 70.3%
- at Kansas State: 24.7%
- vs. BYU: 24.5%
- at Arizona: 42.6%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Sun Devils would end the year with a 6-6 record, a three-win growth in the second year under Kenny Dillingham. It would also secure bowl eligibility for the program for the first time since 2021.
Oklahoma State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Oklahoma State has a 52.5% chance of beating the Sun Devils on Saturday evening. Our metric previously correctly projected the Cowboys to lose to the West Virginia Mountaineers when they were a betting favorite but made them a favorite ahead of the defeat to the Utah Utes.
The remaining win probabilities for Oklahoma State in the 2024 season are below:
- vs. Arizona State: 52.5%
- at TCU: 39.4%
- vs. Texas Tech: 51.2%
- at Colorado: 34.3%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Cowboys would end the season with a 5-7 record, ending a run of winning campaigns that stretches back to Mike Gundy’s first year. With a 2-7 conference record, they would finish the year near the bottom of the Big 12 after being touted as a preseason favorite.
Prediction for Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State
Under head coach Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State has long been a pillar of consistency. With the reigning Doak Walker Award winner returning in 2024, the Cowboys were poised to step up as the Big 12’s new powerhouse following the departures of Texas and Oklahoma.
But things haven’t gone as planned. Hit by injuries and inconsistency, Oklahoma State now faces a revitalized Arizona State, risking their first losing season in nearly two decades. Can they turn it around in Week 10? Who holds the upper hand, and where will this game be won?
The key to this matchup is the ground game. Even in a challenging season, Ollie Gordon II remains Oklahoma State’s biggest offensive threat. When he’s on, the Cowboys can go toe-to-toe with nearly any opponent.
But Arizona State’s defense is a tough wall to crack—ranking high in the Big 12, they’ve allowed just eight rushing touchdowns and hold opponents to 3.48 yards per carry.
In contrast, Oklahoma State has struggled against the run, surrendering 6.05 yards per carry and allowing 17 rushing touchdowns—15th among the Big 12’s 16 teams. This bodes well for Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo, who’s been electric with a 5.7-yard average per carry, 10 touchdowns, and over 1,000 scrimmage yards this season.
The Sun Devils also welcome back quarterback Sam Leavitt, who transferred from Michigan State and initially battled Jeff Sims for the starting spot. Leavitt impressed early in the season, and his absence was felt in their loss to Cincinnati.
Oklahoma State has its own injury boost this week, with standout defensive back Trey Rucker set to return.
However, with other defensive starters like Cameron Epps, Nick Martin, and Collin Oliver sidelined, a defense already allowing 29.9 points per game (102nd in the nation) may struggle to stop Arizona State from clinching bowl eligibility in Week 10.
Prediction: Arizona State 30, Oklahoma State 23
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