The Arizona State Sun Devils have done what many didn’t believe they could do this season. Not only are the winning games, but they’ve also set themselves up for a win-and-they’re-in moment to close out the season in Week 14.
Thanks in large part to the Kansas Jayhawks in back-to-back weeks, Arizona State is knocking on the door of the Big 12 Championship Game.
Arizona State’s Big 12 Championship Chances
Entering Week 13, Arizona State had a 21.95% chance to win the Big 12. Following a victory over the BYU Cougars, however, the Sun Devils pushed their chances to win the Big 12 all the way up to 39.96%.
The Sun Devils aren’t automatically in the Big 12 Championship Game with their win over BYU in Week 13; however, thanks to some help elsewhere, they’re a win away from guaranteeing they at least go to tiebreakers in the Big 12 Championship Game scenarios.
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And it’s those tiebreaking scenarios that mean Arizona State would get in.
How Can Arizona State Make the Big 12 Championship Game?
With Arizona State knocking off BYU and Kansas simultaneously defeating Colorado, the Big 12 race is now between four teams tied with two losses in conference play. These four teams and their probability to make and win the Big 12 Championship Game:
- Colorado 44.40%
- Arizona State 39.96%
- Iowa State 7.96%
- BYU 5.45%
So, let’s break that down a bit further.
Right now, if all four teams finish the season tied, it would be Arizona State that makes the Big 12 Championship. That means if Arizona State beats Arizona in Week 14, they’re in.
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Yes, there is a mathematic situation in which Arizona State could lose to Arizona and still make it, but they would also need a combination of Colorado, Iowa State, or BYU to also lose in Week 14 and go through a massive amount of tiebreakers to do so.
The easiest way is to win against Arizona, and you’re in.
Latest Arizona State Playoff Probability Following Week 13
Right now, the Sun Devils have a 41.44% chance of making the playoffs. That’s largely thanks to the fact that they have a 39.96% chance to win the conference, which would punch their automatic ticket. The remaining minuscule amount is as an at-large team, which hardly comes into play here as they would win the tiebreaker scenarios against the tied teams and likely have to win the Big 12 to get into the playoffs.
Arizona State’s Remaining Schedule
- @ Arizona: 65.1%
- Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Colorado: 49.2%
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