Before Week 1, Texas QB Arch Manning was generally celebrated as the front-runner in the Heisman Trophy race. After Week 1, he has disappeared like a feather in the wind. The Texas passer who was expected to set the world afire has now seen other, less celebrated players get the early edge in terms of Heisman Trophy candidacy.
No More Arch
Several of the Heisman rankings that have dropped Manning include On3, USA Today, ESPN, New York Post, and Bleacher Report. While it’s not difficult to see how Manning faded from the top spot, with Texas dropping from No. 1 to No. 7 after their 14-7 loss to Ohio State, it’s surprising to see him fade so fast, as he still fits many of the boxes to win the Award.
The Case Against Arch
Manning was 17 for 30 for 170 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the loss to Ohio State. Probably more disturbing than his own stat line was that the explosive Texas offense was held to just seven points by the Buckeyes. Yes, Manning missed plenty of throws, and some were both costly and aesthetically ugly.
Yes, the Ohio State game is probably the biggest regular-season point that Arch could have scored in the 2025 season. Georgia is the lone top-10 team remaining on Texas’ regular-season schedule, although that game on Nov. 15 could certainly be lucrative for Manning to regain ground in the Heisman race.
Obviously, the other issue is the loss. Texas remains very much in the hunt for the CFP (ESPN left the Longhorns at No. 1 in its FPI), but anything that fades the team can hurt the player. That said, it’s not as if the Heisman winner needs to come from the No. 1 team, but to the extent that the Longhorns slid to No. 7, it definitely impacts Manning’s Heisman chances moving forward in 2025.
The Case for Arch
Manning meets several significant requirements. He is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the nation, and quarterbacks are almost always the majority of the field under serious consideration for the Heisman. For instance, the On3 list of Heisman contenders includes eight QBs in the 10 spots utilized.
Manning, as noted above, is still the focal point on one of the nation’s top teams. While he will fade from Heisman consideration if Texas has a 7-5 season or something equally insane, that’s an incredibly unlikely scenario. Texas remains a massive favorite to reach the CFP, which, for Heisman purposes, probably keeps Manning’s stock among the bona fide contenders.
Finally, the biggest issue is notoriety. To be frank, there will be no lack of outstanding college football players. As last season illustrated, the award didn’t necessarily go to a player on the best team or even the most productive player, but to the player who combines celebrity and skill, performance and platform. Manning started ahead of the field here, and a loss in Week 1 won’t hold him back for long.
Manning Overview
Much as the massive drop in the polls seems like an overreaction to one game, so does the fade on Manning’s Heisman stock. If Texas puts together a 10-2 or 11-1 regular season as expected, it will probably end with Manning as at least a finalist for the Heisman, if not outright as the Heisman winner. The Week 2 hype will be forgotten in a hurry.
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