Two quarterbacks have carried the Heisman conversation deep into December. Fernando Mendoza guided Indiana to an unbeaten run and a Big Ten title. Diego Pavia pushed Vanderbilt into national relevance with a dual-threat season no one saw coming.
Their cases were strong with packed resumes, and both entered championship weekend knowing one more big performance could tilt the race. Then came Indiana vs. Ohio State. A top-two matchup with playoff stakes and one of the best defensive showcases of the season.
Both teams traded stops, field position, and pressure. Indiana’s defensive front held its ground. Ohio State’s secondary forced tight windows. Mendoza took a shot early that nearly knocked him out, but he stayed in, controlled drives, and delivered the two moments that changed everything.
The deep strike to Charlie Becker and the touchdown to Elijah Sarratt that sealed the title. In a low-scoring (13-10), tense game, those throws stood out even more. That performance reshaped the Heisman race in real time.
Joel Klatt broke it down on his show, pointing to the poise Mendoza showed on the road all season, the unbeaten record, and the way he consistently delivered under pressure. He viewed the throw to Becker as the moment that separated Mendoza from everyone else.
“Mendoza definitely had a Heisman moment,” Klatt said. “No other player has a resume like Fernando Mendoza, and it candidly, it’s not even close, and anybody that argues differently is wrong. I don’t know how else to say it.” (From 6:29)
Klatt argued that no contender matched the combination of resume, production, and big-game execution. In Klatt’s eyes, the Heisman conversation shifted from debate to near certainty in favor of Mendoza.
Diego Pavia and Fernando Mendoza’s Heisman Odds
Mendoza enters the final stretch as the overwhelming favorite. Oddsmakers have pushed him into heavy negative territory (-2000 as per FanDuel), reflecting the undefeated season, the clutch play against Ohio State, and his statistical profile.
Mendoza has 2,980 passing yards, 33 passing touchdowns, six interceptions, and six rushing touchdowns. Indiana’s 13–0 record gives his case the backbone voters usually gravitate toward.
Pavia remains in the hunt, but the path is narrow. His odds sit in the mid-plus range (+900), making him the closest challenger but still a long shot. He threw for 3,192 yards and 27 touchdowns with eight interceptions, completing more than 71 percent of his passes.
He added 826 rushing yards and nine rushing scores, making him one of the most complete dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. His numbers stack up across every column, and his value to Vanderbilt is obvious. Still, Heisman races often hinge on timing and magnitude.
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