The Alabama Crimson Tide were off on championship weekend, missing out on the SEC Championship Game thanks to their loss to Oklahoma weeks back. On the College Football Playoff bubble to enter the weekend, the scenarios that ‘Bama needed to fall their way didn’t exactly go as planned.
As such, Alabama could be on the outs on Selection Sunday.
Alabama’s Playoff Chances Take A Hit?
There are multiple schools of thought when it comes to the final at-large teams that should make the 12-team College Football Playoffs. Obviously, the strength of your schedule, the strength of your victories and subsequent damage of your losses, as well as your ability to make your conference championship game are all going to be evaluated by the committee.
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Should they penalize teams for making their conference championships while essentially not taking that into account for those who missed their championship games?
This conundrum has come into play for the last at-large team now that SMU lost to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.
To understand that, however, we have to set the tone from last week’s rankings:
- Oregon (Won Big Ten vs. Penn State)
- Texas (loss SEC vs. Georgia)
- Penn State (loss Big Ten vs. Penn State)
- Notre Dame
- Georgia (won SEC vs. Texas)
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- SMU (lost ACC vs. Clemson)
- Indiana
- Boise State (won Mountain West)
- Alabama
- Miami-FL
- Ole Miss
- South Carolina
- Arizona State (won Big 12 vs. Iowa State)
- Iowa State (lost Big 12 vs. Arizona State)
- Clemson (won ACC vs. SMU)
With how the results transpired from Friday to Saturday, that would give us the following top seeds:
No. 1 seed Oregon
No. 2 seed Georgia
No. 3 seed Boise State
No. 4 seed Arizona State
That means, Clemson likely lands as the No. 12, or potentially the No. 11 seed, thanks to winning the ACC. And the rest of the teams in the playoffs are set to be at-large teams.
Texas and Penn State — despite losses — are secure in the playoffs. Notre Dame, Ohio State, Tennessee, and Indiana are in as well. That’s six of the at-large spots all but confirmed, meaning the last spot is set to come down to SMU and Alabama.
The Mustangs were ranked No. 8 in last week’s ranking, but fell to the No. 17-ranked Tigers. How the committee takes that into account is set to dictate more than just whether or not Bama or SMU are eliminated.
There is talk about devaluing the conference championship games if SMU doesn’t make it. Then there’s talk about how SMU technically controlled their destiny and the CC games could be looked at as playoff eliminators.
The biggest factor, however, is the fact that you have a near controlled experiment with this exact situation, though there is little precedent in this realm.
South Carolina beat Clemson and found themselves still behind Alabama in the rankings. SMU has now lost to Clemson, and it would make all too much sense for them to fall behind the Tide in the rankings, right in line with the Gamecocks.
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Now, South Carolina and SMU played dramatically different schedules and finished with different records. But their head-to-head similarities are stark — SC beat Clemson and landed at No. 14; SMU lost to Clemson and could still outrank SC, but should at least merit a handful of dropped spots in the rankings.
And as of the turn to Selection Sunday, the CFN projections have SMU out and Alabama in.
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