Entering conference championship weekend off a win in the Iron Bowl, it was clear that the Alabama Crimson Tide needed some help to become an at-large team in the College Football Playoffs.
However, after earning a No. 11 seed in this week’s College Football Playoff Rankings, the Tide are looking pretty good. That’s because, as of right now, they’re the last team in.
Alabama to Make the College Football Playoffs?
Alabama handled their business in the Iron Bowl against Auburn, finishing the season with a 9-3 record. They finished undefeated at home this year — 7-0 — and were given a 24.3% chance to make the playoffs by our CFN Football Playoff Meter.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Before the rankings show, though, the Tide were anything but sold on getting into the 12-team playoff. Thanks to the chaos around them, their postseason journey was put into question.
Now, with an 11th ranking, here’s how Alabama can almost all but guarantee they’re in the playoffs.
How Can Alabama Make the Playoffs?
By ranking 11th, the Tide are the last team in the playoffs. Given the fact that they don’t play another game, there is almost a solid guarantee that they cannot lose their standing.
But here’s where it gets tricky.
Right now, on 95% of our simulations, Alabama makes the playoffs. In those 5% of the simulations, the only scenario that saw the Tide miss the playoffs was a very specific situation.
If Clemson wins a close game against SMU, the Tigers would get the ACC’s automatic bid. However, the simulation model doesn’t necessarily drop SMU out of the playoff picture completely.
In fact, in those 5% of the simulations, SMU slid to the 12th seed and earned the last at-large bid in the playoffs.
It’s a long shot, but it seems like that’s the only scenario in which Alabama doesn’t make the playoffs this season.
With Indiana at No. 9, Tennessee at No. 7, and Ohio State at No. 6, those three teams cannot lose another game and thus have secured their positioning. The only other way Alabama could make it in is if the Texas Longhorns (who earned the No. 2 ranking) knock off the Georgia Bulldogs (who earned the No. 5 ranking) by a score so bad that the committee has nothing better to do than drop them significantly, the Tide could be in.
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Again, these are incredibly long shots and longer odds that Alabama doesn’t make the playoffs now. Thanks to their 11th overall ranking, the Tide will be on the road as an at-large team in the college football playoffs.
And that should kinda scare Tide fans as they’re 2-3 on the road this year.
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