Entering Week 14, the Alabama Crimson Tide were set to lock in for a tough battle against the Auburn Tigers in the Iron Bowl. But in the back of their mind, their College Football Playoff aspirations had to be there.
With a win against Auburn, the Tide may still need some luck to get in the playoffs.
Will Alabama Make the College Football Playoffs?
Let’s just assume Alabama wins the Iron Bowl against Auburn. That’s why you’d be here, that’s what you’re thinking, and that’s what you’re wondering: Will Alabama make the playoffs with a win?
So, let’s break that specifically down with the results from Week 14 already and some projections using the CFN College Football Playoff Predictor.
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And using that Playoff Predictor, the Crimson Tide are given a 24.26% chance to make the playoffs with a win over Auburn. The road map is clear, and it starts with a win against Auburn.
After that, however, to make the playoffs, Alabama has to get some luck.
How Can Alabama Make the Playoffs?
To understand that, you have to look at the teams around the Tide — and even look down further past Alabama’s current ranking of No. 13. That’s because all the Big 12 teams are behind Alabama right now, but one of them will get the Big 12’s guaranteed playoff berth by winning the conference.
That means Alabama likely needs to rank at least at No. 11 to feel safe, but if Boise State were to lose, they’d have to rank 10th or higher. So, let’s understand all these scenarios.
The best way for Alabama to make the playoffs is to win against Auburn. Once that’s done, they can then look at the teams around them for some help.
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No. 12 Clemson lost, but they lost to a three-loss SEC team in South Carolina. That likely means SC is set to jump over Alabama and simply occupy that No. 12 ranking (at least) that Clemson had.
Away from there, Alabama would need to move up at least two spots to feel comfortable as we stated earlier. Even with Ohio State losing, they’re unlikely to fall below Indiana, who currently sits at No. 10. Let’s go team by team to figure this all out.
- No. 4 Penn State — in the Big Ten Championship Game vs. Oregon
- No. 5 Notre Dame — in at-large with win over USC
- No. 6 Miami — in ACC Championship Game w/ win over Syracuse
- No. 7 Georgia — in ACC Championship Game after win over Georgia Tech
- No. 8 Tennessee — in at-large after win over Vanderbilt
- No. 9 SMU — in ACC Championship Game after win over Cal
- No. 10 Indiana — in at-large with win over Purdue
- No. 11 Boise State — in as highest-ranked G5 champion (or UNLV would occupy this spot)
- No. 12 Clemson — out, likely replaced by South Carolina
- No. 14 Ole Miss — likely out despite win over Mississippi State
- No. 15 South Carolina — see above, likely moving to No. 12
- No. 16 Arizona State — in Big 12 Championship Game vs. Iowa State or BYU or Colorado
And we don’t need to go further than that.
Currently, Notre Dame is winning against USC but Miami is tied with Syracuse. An Irish loss would move ‘Bama up a spot as well.
Alabama’s best chances are SMU losing to Miami in the ACC Championship Game to move up at least one spot and then maybe some luck from there.
In that scenario, Miami would lose and miss out on the ACC Championship Game. That would put Clemson in the ACC Championship Game and likely remove Miami from contention in the playoffs altogether.
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Clemson would be favored over SMU and would surely only place one ACC team in.
In that case, Alabama moves up two spots and it would likely still come down to where the committee ranks South Carolina and the loser of the SEC Championship Game if the loser of the SEC is Georgia.
Win against Auburn, and hope for some chaos, ‘Bama fans. You’re going to need it.
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