One year after their thrilling College Football Playoff showdown, the Alabama Crimson Tide and Michigan Wolverines face off once again, this time to close out their seasons in the ReliaQuest Bowl on Dec. 31 in Tampa. Alabama, narrowly edged out of this year’s playoff in favor of the ACC runner-up SMU Mustangs, enters with a chip on its shoulder and a fanbase still grappling with the sting of that decision.
For Michigan, the defending national champions, this season has been a far cry from last year’s glory. Sitting at 7-5, the Wolverines have endured a frustrating campaign, but they now have a shot at redemption against a familiar adversary. Their dramatic victory over Alabama in last season’s Rose Bowl semifinal is still fresh in fans’ minds, setting the stage for another must-watch clash. Our Alabama vs. Michigan prediction dives into who might come out on top this time around.
Alabama vs. Michigan ReliaQuest Bowl Betting Preview
All Alabama vs. Michigan odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024. The CFN FPM Spread is from the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Alabama -12.5 - Spread
Alabama -16.5 - Moneyline
Alabama -750, Michigan +525 - Over/Under
45 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Raymond James Stadium | Tampa, FL - Predicted Weather at Kick
66 degrees, partly cloudy, 2 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN
The Crimson Tide initially opened as -13.5-point favorites, and that number has slowly fallen since then. It now sits as Alabama -10.5 and could continue to fall before kickoff.
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The total has been significantly less active. It opened at 42.5 and has jumped a single point to 43.5. Given how much Michigan has struggled to move the football and capitalize in the red zone, it’s hard to imagine this number getting above 44 before the New Year’s Eve kickoff.
Alabama’s Winning Probability
This game is big for the history of Alabama football and first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer. If the win probability holds, that would give DeBoer a 10-win season in his first season in Tuscaloosa. More importantly, it would mark the 17th consecutive season in which Alabama football has won double-digit games.
That streak displays Alabama’s dominance during the Nick Saban era and the near-laughable level of consistency. The last thing DeBoer wants to do in his first season at the helm is break that streak.
- vs. Michigan: 77.7%
Michigan’s Winning Probability
Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore was also trying to continue a double-digit winning streak in his first season as head coach of the Maize and Blue. Michigan’s streak wasn’t quite as impressive as Alabama’s, and it will also end in Moore’s first season.
The Wolverines were on a streak of three consecutive double-digit win seasons under former head coach Jim Harbaugh before his departure to the NFL.
Still, if Michigan could find a way to pull off the upset, they would close out 2024 with back-to-back wins over Ohio State and Alabama, two true blue-bloods of the sport, vaulting the Wolverines into 2025 with serious momentum.
- vs. Alabama: 22.3%
Prediction for Alabama vs. Michigan
Most years, an Alabama vs. Michigan postseason clash would carry national championship stakes. This year, however, is the exception. Michigan’s defense has been their anchor all season, showcased in a gritty 13-10 win over Ohio State in their last outing. Ranked 14th nationally in total defense, the Wolverines have built a reputation for smothering opponents.
Yet, questions linger from that victory. Ohio State’s puzzling game plan played right into Michigan’s hands. Instead of exploiting their edge with dynamic skill players on the perimeter, the Buckeyes stubbornly leaned into a smashmouth approach. Alabama, with a similar arsenal of speed and skill on the outside, isn’t likely to repeat that mistake.
Under head coach Kalen DeBoer, Alabama will arrive better prepared. DeBoer—undefeated in two non-CFP bowl games—has a knack for crafting game plans that maximize his team’s strengths, and he’ll have nearly a month to strategize.
His bowl resume, which includes leading Fresno State to a New Mexico Bowl win and guiding Washington past Texas in the Alamo Bowl, underscores his ability to thrive on the big stage. Armed with the 39th-ranked offense, Alabama has the tools to challenge Michigan’s stout defense.
Adding to Alabama’s momentum, quarterback Jalen Milroe has confirmed he’ll suit up for the ReliaQuest Bowl, which is great news for the Crimson Tide and bad news for the Wolverines. Milroe’s dynamic playmaking ability gives Alabama the balance needed to move the ball and put up points—something Michigan isn’t built to match in a high-scoring game.
Meanwhile, Michigan’s offense has sputtered in recent weeks, showing only flashes of life in an outlier performance against Northwestern. While the Wolverines won’t go down without a fight, their attention may already be drifting toward the future.
With a winning season capped by a victory over Ohio State, Michigan’s motivation seems to pale compared to Alabama’s hunger to end the year on a high note. This one tilts in favor of the Crimson Tide—Alabama rolls.
Prediction: Alabama 34, Michigan 13
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