It’s been an unusual season for the Alabama Crimson Tide in their first year AN (After Nick), but they’re finding their groove and remain firmly in the hunt for both the College Football Playoff and the SEC Championship. On the other hand, for the Oklahoma Sooners, it’s all about pride and securing a bowl berth as they wrap up their debut season in what many call the “best conference” in college football.
Now, these two storied programs face off in Week 13.
Who will come out on top? Our Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction dives into everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both teams as they close out the 2024 college football season.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Betting Preview
All Alabama vs. Oklahoma odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Alabama -12 - Spread
Alabama -14 - Moneyline
Alabama -625, Oklahoma +455 - Over/Under
46.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium | Norman, OK - Predicted Weather at Kick
53 degrees, partly cloudy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
There’s not a long-running history between these two programs, and Saturday’s first encounter as SEC foes is only the sixth all-time meeting. Four of those matchups have come in the postseason, with Alabama emerging victorious from their previous clash in the 2018 Capital One Orange Bowl. Oklahoma leads 3-2-1 and won both regular season games (2002-2003).
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Unsurprisingly, given the current trajectory of both programs, the Crimson Tide is a significant favorite, according to DraftKings and the CFN FPM. Alabama has won their last three and covered the spread when favored, including as a 42.5-point favorite against FCS Mercer. That said, Oklahoma covered the last time they were a double-digit underdog — against the Ole Miss Rebels.
Alabama’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is closely aligned with Vegas here, making the Crimson Tide 12-point favorites over the Sooners and giving it an 81.6% chance to win. The Crimson Tide will be heavy favorites in the Iron Bowl as well, and if it wins both, Kalen DeBoer will hit an incredible mark.
- at Oklahoma: 81.6%
- vs. Auburn: 93.9%
Oklahoma’s Winning Probability
Oklahoma still needs a win to make a bowl, and the Sooners will need to pull off an upset to do it, with just a road tilt at the LSU Tigers remaining next week. The odds that Oklahoma wins one of its remaining two games are just under 39%.
- vs. Alabama: 18.4%
- at LSU: 25.1%
Prediction for Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Some casual fans have taken uninformed shots at DeBoer and the Crimson Tide this season, but let’s be honest—Alabama is back to dominating. DeBoer’s career track record speaks volumes. In his first year with a program, he’s dropped more games (nine) than he has across the rest of his career combined (five). That’s the definition of excellence.
Right now, DeBoer boasts the highest winning percentage of any Division I coach with at least one year of experience. While the official record won’t be cemented until he finishes his 10th season, Alabama just needs to go 9-3 or better this year for him to lock it in.
It might not be a headline-grabbing storyline for every fan, but it’s undeniable proof of DeBoer’s effectiveness. He’s a proven winner, and now he’s delivering in Tuscaloosa.
Alabama remains a contender, and Jalen Milroe is emerging as a dark horse Heisman candidate. His explosive performance against LSU—dominating the Tigers’ defense in a statement road win during an SEC night game—was a reminder of just how dangerous he can be.
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Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s offense is running out of excuses. The Sooners tried to patch their offensive line through the transfer portal, but it hasn’t worked. That glaring weakness has overshadowed any positives from getting their receivers healthy. Jackson Arnold has struggled, and this team looks perilously close to waving the white flag.
It’s a shame because the Sooners’ defense is one of the stronger units in the Big 12. But without any offensive support, they’ve been stuck in a constant uphill battle. Alabama’s defense, while outstanding, has shown a vulnerability to big plays—a crack that Oklahoma’s offense might be able to exploit.
That’s Oklahoma’s only realistic path to victory: contain Milroe and hit on a few explosive plays. If they can pull off both, they’ll have a chance.
But let’s be real—it’s a long shot. Oklahoma’s primary focus will be stopping Milroe, which will open up the run game and quick screens for Alabama. Even if the Tide start slow, Oklahoma’s offense hasn’t proven it can sustain drives against elite defenses.
The Sooners’ defense might keep Alabama’s offense in check for stretches, but it’s unlikely to carry them to a win.
Play it safe: take the under and Oklahoma to cover. But Alabama should win comfortably. This matchup feels more about how close it gets than the final result.
Prediction: Alabama 28, Oklahoma 17
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