In Week 10, college football’s most intense three-way rivalry picks back up as the Air Force Falcons head to West Point to take on the Army Black Knights. Despite each team’s season taking different turns, the battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy brings a level playing field and plenty of unpredictability.
Our Air Force vs. Army prediction breaks down what the loss of Army QB Bryson Daily means for the Black Knights.
Air Force vs. Army Betting Preview
All Air Force vs. Army odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Army -21.5 - Spread
Army -18 - Moneyline
Army -1050, Air Force +675 - Over/Under
38.5 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Michie Stadium | West Point, NY - Predicted Weather at Kick
54 degrees, mostly sunny, 5 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS/Paramount+
Following the news of Daily sitting out, the line moved sharply away from Army as a three-touchdown favorite. In 30 minutes following the news, the line dropped from Army -22 to Army -18 and the total went from 41 points to 38.5.
The Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy has thrown Air Force and Army together 58 times since 1959, and historically, the Falcons have had the beating of their bitter rival. Despite the 38-19-1 advantage to Air Force, recent history has been more favorable for the Black Knights, who won against the odds a year ago in Denver and tasted victory in five of the last seven encounters.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Aside from the importance of the game, you can throw all historical trends out the window. These two teams are on polar opposite trajectories, and Army is set to defend their home territory with deadly vigor. Air Force hasn’t covered the spread all year long, and the Black Knights are 6-0-1 against the spread this year with an average margin of victory of 28 points.
Air Force’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Air Force has just a 5.9% chance of beating Army on Saturday. The Falcons’ campaign has been difficult, and our metric has correctly projected every game on their schedule so far.
- at Army: 5.9%
- vs. Fresno State: 17.9%
- vs. Oregon State: 19.8%
- at Nevada: 29.7%
- at San Diego State: 27%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Air Force would end the 2024 season with a 1-11 overall record after going winless in Mountain West play. The program has never won just one game in a season, marking a new low for a team that won nine games in 2023.
Army’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Army has a 94.1% chance of beating their bitter rivals on Saturday afternoon. Our metric has favored the Black Knights in every game of their undefeated run, and the trend should continue true to form in Week 10.
- vs. Air Force: 94.1%
- at North Texas: 78.1%
- vs. Notre Dame (at Yankee Stadium): 33.1%
- vs. UTSA: 88.6%
- vs. Navy (at FedEx Field): 74.6%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Army would end the 2024 season with an 11-1 record, with only the Notre Dame Fighting Irish standing between them and a perfect regular season. It would be the best overall record for a Black Knights team since the 1950 season.
Prediction for Air Force vs. Army
Few things in sports rival the passion, pride, and pageantry of college football, especially when two service academies take the field. The intensity runs deep as the cadets from Army, Air Force, and Navy bring the same grit and dedication they’ll later display in service.
This Saturday, the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy series rolls on with a matchup between the 1-6 Air Force Falcons and the undefeated, 7-0 Army Black Knights. Can the tradition and fire of this rivalry push the Falcons past their recent struggles, or is Army simply too powerful this year? Who holds the advantage, and where will the game’s decisive moments unfold?
Before we get straight to it, we have to note that Daily dramatically changes things for the bottom line, but not for the overall view of this game. These teams are on two wildly different paths as the Black Knights have the College Football Playoff in their sights and Air Force is just trying to salvage what is arguably their worst season under head coach Troy Calhoun.
Daily is set to miss the game with an undisclosed illness/injury as he was unable to practice this week. Backup QB Dewayne Coleman makes his first career start, but has extensive experience in his career.
Now, let’s get to it: Air Force faces a steep climb here, and it’s worth acknowledging the reality. The Falcons are navigating significant roster turnover from last year’s 9-3 squad, with big gaps across the line, NFL-level defensive backs, their starting quarterback, and key backs known for their speed and power.
The results have been tough. At 1-6, Air Force ranks near the bottom nationally in scoring offense, averaging just 15.3 points per game. Take away their 37-point game against New Mexico, and the numbers look even bleaker. Leading rusher Cade Harris has managed only 212 yards, and QB John Busha has thrown five interceptions against just one touchdown.
Quentin Hayes has shown flashes for the Falcons, but no one in their lineup matches the impact of Army’s Kanye Udoh with Daily out. And defensively, Army has held opponents to just 12.4 points per game.
Though they haven’t yet faced a high-octane offense, that won’t change Saturday. With Max DiDomenico, Andon Thomas, and Elo Modozie anchoring the defense, Army looks primed to handle whatever Air Force throws their way.
Expect nothing less than a decisive win for Army.
Prediction: Air Force 15, Army 43
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