After an impressive win over Stanford in Week 5, the Clemson Tigers are beginning to look like the program of old, closing the gap at the top of the conference. However, it is the Miami Hurricanes who continue to lead the ACC predictions, according to the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter.
ACC Championship Predictions
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
Below, are the CFN FPM percentages for winning the 2024 ACC Championship ahead of Week 6:
- Miami Hurricanes – 42.6%
- Clemson Tigers – 35%
- Syracuse Orange – 3.4%
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – 3.4%
- SMU Mustangs – 3%
- Boston College Eagles – 2.3%
- Louisville Cardinals – 1.8%
- Pittsburgh Panthers – 1.6%
- NC State Wolfpack – 1.5%
- Virginia Tech Hokies – 1.5%
- California Golden Bears – 1.1%
- Stanford Cardinal – 0.9%
- North Carolina Tar Heels – 0.6%
- Duke Blue Devils – 0.5%
- Virginia Cavaliers – 0.4%
- Florida State Seminoles – 0.4%
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons – 0.1%
Miami Hurricanes – 52.2%
After opening the season 4-0 with comfortable wins every step of the way before adding another win in controversial fashion against Virginia Tech Mario Cristobal’s team is considered an overwhelming favorite to win the ACC. With just one currently-ranked team on their schedule, the CFN FPM gives them an 18.9% chance of winning every game remaining this season.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Behind QB Cam Ward, the Hurricanes have the top-ranked overall offense in the ACC (585.6 yards per game), while a dangerous defensive unit has allowed a conference-leading 265.0 yards per game and just 15.0 points per game. No team in the ACC has more explosive passing plays (over 20 yards) than Miami. Ward has engineered 37 such plays, the next best has just 23.
Clemson Tigers – 35%
Don’t look now but a vintage college football season might be coming from Clemson. After struggling against the Georgia Bulldogs to open the campaign, Dabo Swinney’s team has ripped through Appalachian State, North Carolina State, and Stanford in ruthless fashion, putting a halt to claims of their demise and returning them to the pinnacle of the conference.
After scoring just three points against Georgia, they’ve averaged 55 points per game in the last three. That has them creeping up the statistical leaderboards and closing on the ACC frontrunners. The win over Stanford catapulted them from 22.9% to 35% chance in the latest ACC predictions. After climbing two spots in the AP Poll, they also have a 26.7% chance of making the CFP.
Syracuse Orange – 3.4%
As our ACC predictions attest, there is a feeling that the ACC Championship Game will be Miami and Clemson. Everyone else is competing to be the “best of the rest,” and right now, the Syracuse Orange, under new head coach Fran Brown, absolutely has the inside track to that third place in the conference, having beaten a good Georgia Tech team in Week 2.
That said, they’re about to embark on a three-game road stretch that will test their national relevance and conference credentials. UNLV looks to be one of the top Group of Five challengers for the College Football Playoff, then trips to face NC State and a resurgent Pitt team comes either side of their bye week. Oh, and they face the Hurricanes to end the season.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – 4.2%
A convincing loss to the Louisville Cardinals harms a Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets bandwagon that had gathered significant steam after beating Florida State in Dublin but has since registered two conference losses. They’ve also got one of the hardest remaining schedules in the country, with a 0.07% chance of winning all their remaining games.
Two of those are against out-of-conference opponents Notre Dame and Georgia, which doesn’t impact their 4.2% chance of winning the ACC. What might, is a defense that has given up over 30 points in their last two ACC outings, and an offense that struggled to move the ball against Louisville. Head coach Brent Key will need to recover the magic around the program quickly.
SMU Mustangs – 3%
Having recovered from the “death penalty” in the 1980s to become one of the most prominent Group of Five teams, the SMU Mustangs know what it is to overcome adversity and exceed expectations. After a dismal start to the season that saw them barely overcome Nevada and fall to BYU, Rhett Lashlee’s team has recovered and is making a run in the conference.
After putting up 66 points against TCU in Week 4, the Mustangs passed their first ACC test by comfortably putting Florida State to the sword in Week 5. Although a three-game road stretch starts in Week 6 with 22nd-ranked Louisville, they don’t face another currently ranked team all year. They have a higher percentage chance of wining their remaining games than either of the two teams above them in our ACC predictions.
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