The AAC Championship Game was the first to be locked in, featuring the Tulane Green Wave heading to Michie Stadium to face the Army Black Knights in what promises to be an electrifying Friday night showdown.
Who will emerge victorious? Our AAC Championship Game prediction dives into the latest odds, win probabilities, and a forecast for Tulane vs. Army.
AAC Championship Game Betting Preview
All AAC Championship Game odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Dec. 6, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Tulane -1 - Spread
Tulane -4.5 - Moneyline
Tulane -198, Army +164 - Over/Under
45.5 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Mitchie Stadium | West Point, NY - Predicted Weather at Kick
22 degrees, partly cloudy, 8 mph winds - How to Watch
ABC
Army and Tulane will meet for the 24th time on Friday night, but the stakes have never been higher than in the AAC Championship Game. The Green Wave has rolled over the Knights in recent years. Although they haven’t met since 2020, Tulane has won the last four (including the last two in New York) and carries a 13-9-1 head-to-head advantage into their biggest game of the year.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Unsurprisingly, the Green Wave is favored ahead of the game, having already bullied one service academy off the field this year. That said, the CFN FPM has this as a much closer game than the oddsmakers, and we’ll explain why later in this AAC Championship Game prediction. Army has failed to cover in five of the last six, while Tulane is 9-3 ATS in the 2024 season.
Tulane’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Tulane has a 50.6% chance of beating Army on Friday night. Our metric was largely in lockstep with the Green Wave during the 2024 college football season. That said, it gave Jon Sumrall’s team a 65.7% chance of beating the Memphis Tigers in the regular season finale that they lost in Week 14.
- at Army: 50.6%
Army’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Army has a 49.4% chance of beating Tulane in the AAC Championship Game on Friday night. The CFN FPM accurately projected the Black Knights’ 11-1 season, including the loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
- vs. Tulane: 49.4%
Prediction for the AAC Championship Game
The AAC Championship Game matchup was set well in advance, but the location for the season’s biggest American clash wasn’t decided until Saturday night. Tulane’s Thanksgiving loss to Memphis, combined with Army’s victory over UTSA, cleared the path for Mitchie Stadium to host the title showdown.
Army comes into the game after their best season since 2018, with Jeff Monken’s squad suffering just one loss in their debut AAC campaign. Meanwhile, Tulane bounced back from a rocky start to the season, rolling through their conference slate to secure their spot. But who holds the edge? How will this game be decided, and who will walk away as the 2024 AAC champion?
Despite entering as the underdog, Army has plenty of reasons to believe they can claim the AAC title in their first attempt. Tulane’s recent loss to Memphis exposed a weakness against the run—a recurring issue in their three losses this year.
Army’s defense is well-equipped to exploit that. The Black Knights have been exceptional against the run, allowing just 103.0 rushing yards per game, 3.99 yards per carry, and 10 rushing touchdowns all season. They also boast a conference-best 16 interceptions and have allowed the fewest passing touchdowns (12) in the AAC.
This has translated to a dominant unit allowing just 15.1 points per game, eighth-best in the nation. In eight of their 11 games, they’ve held opponents to 14 points or fewer. At the heart of their defense, safeties Casey Larkin and Max DiDomenico have been electric, combining for six interceptions, 87 tackles, and seven tackles for loss.
On offense, Army can challenge Tulane’s defense in unique ways. Senior QB Bryson Daily has been a revelation, running the triple option to perfection while leading the AAC in rushing yards (1,354) and touchdowns (25). His ability to occasionally stretch the field with his arm adds a layer of unpredictability to an already challenging attack.
Still, Daily and the Army offense may struggle to replicate last week’s Memphis performance against a Tulane pass defense that allows the fewest yards per attempt (5.9) in the AAC. That could allow the Green Wave to zero in on stopping the run. Defensive standouts Patrick Jenkins and Tyler Grubbs will be critical in slowing Army’s ground game.
While Army has the tools to disrupt Tulane, this will be their toughest challenge outside of their matchup with Notre Dame. Tulane RB Makhi Hughes has been a consistent force, scoring a touchdown in all but two games this year, and the Green Wave’s deep stable of backs could wear down the Black Knights’ defense.
QB Darian Mensah leads the AAC in completion percentage (65.6%) and yards per attempt (9.6), giving Tulane a reliable aerial threat. Meanwhile, Ty Thompson’s versatility as a Wildcat quarterback adds another wrinkle to their offense if adjustments are needed.
This matchup has all the makings of a close contest, but don’t count out Tulane pulling off a sixth road victory this season to secure the AAC title.
Prediction: Tulane 27, Army 24
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.