The first title game to be set in stone, the AAC Championship Game will see the Tulane Green Wave travel to Mitchie Stadium to take on the Army Black Knights in an enthralling Friday night college football spectacle.
Who will come out on top? Our AAC Championship Game prediction examines the latest odds, win probabilities, and forecasts the winner of Tulane vs. Army.
AAC Championship Game Betting Preview
All AAC Championship Game odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Dec. 3, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Tulane -1 - Spread
Tulane -6 - Moneyline
Tulane -225, Army +185 - Over/Under
46 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Mitchie Stadium | West Point, NY - Predicted Weather at Kick
22 degrees, partly cloudy, 8 mph winds - How to Watch
ABC
Army and Tulane will meet for the 24th time on Friday night, but the stakes have never been higher than in the AAC Championship Game. The Green Wave has rolled over the Knights in recent years. Although they haven’t met since 2020, Tulane has won the last four (including the last two in New York) and carries a 13-9-1 head-to-head advantage into their biggest game of the year.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Unsurprisingly, the Green Wave is favored ahead of the game, having already bullied one service academy off the field this year. That said, the CFN FPM has this as a much closer game than the oddsmakers, and we’ll explain why later in this AAC Championship Game prediction. Army has failed to cover in five of the last six, while Tulane is 9-3 ATS in the 2024 season.
Tulane’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Tulane has a 50.6% chance of beating Army on Friday night. Our metric was largely in lockstep with the Green Wave during the 2024 college football season. That said, it gave Jon Sumrall’s team a 65.7% chance of beating the Memphis Tigers in the regular season finale that they lost in Week 14.
- at Army: 50.6%
Army’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Army has a 49.4% chance of beating Tulane in the AAC Championship Game on Friday night. The CFN FPM accurately projected the Black Knights’ 11-1 season, including the loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
- vs. Tulane: 49.4%
Prediction for the AAC Championship Game
While the AAC Championship Game lineup was set earlier than any other, the two teams had to wait until Saturday night to learn the location of the stage for the biggest game of the American season. Tulane’s loss to the Memphis Tigers on Thanksgiving, combined with Army’s win against the UTSA Roadrunners, paved the way for Mitchie Stadium to play host.
Army enters the game following their best season since 2018, with Jeff Monken’s team recording just one loss in their first season as an AAC member. Meanwhile, Tulane overcame a shaky start to 2024 to rattle through their conference schedule. Who has the edge? Where will this game be won, and who will emerge as the 2024 American Athletic Conference champion?
Army enters the game as the underdog, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that the Black Knights can overcome the odds to secure an AAC crown at the first time of asking. Tulane comes into the game off the back of a defeat to Memphis, where they struggled to get their running game going and were brutalized on the ground, a pattern to their three losses in the 2024 campaign.
For the most part, Army has had a stellar rushing defense, which could help them lockdown Tulane rusher Makhi Hughes, who leads the AAC in carries. They’ve allowed just 103.00 rushing yards per game, 3.99 rushing yards per carry, and 10 rushing touchdowns. Additionally, they’ve snagged the most interceptions (16) while allowing the fewest passing scores (12) in the AAC.
The result has been a defense that has allowed just 15.1 points per game, ranking eighth in the nation for scoring defense. In eight of their 11 games this year, they’ve allowed 14 points or less. Safety duo Casey Larkin and Max DiDomenico have been ferocious at the heart of the Black Knights unit, tallying six interceptions, 87 tackles, and seven tackles for loss combined.
The Army offense can also give the Tulane defense a game of it. Bryson Daily has been one of the stories of the year. The senior quarterback has operated traditional triple-option concepts to a high level, leading the AAC in rushing yards (1,354) and touchdowns (25). Yet, he boasts the arm talent to take pop shots down the field, making Army a difficult unit to contain.
Although Daily has been incredible this season, he might struggle to test a Green Wave pass defense that has allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt (5.9) in the AAC like Seth Henigan did a week ago. Subsequently, Tulane should be able to focus on stopping the ground game and frustrate the Army offense. Look for Patrick Jenkins and Tyler Grubbs to have a significant impact.
While Army has the potential to halt the Tulane offense, it is comfortably their most difficult task outside of the Notre Dame game. Leading rusher Hughes has scored a touchdown in every appearance except two this year, and the Green Wave has several backs capable of impacting the result.
Quarterback Darian Mensah leads the conference in completion percentage (65.6%) and yards per attempt (9.6). However, it’s worth watching out for Ty Thompson’s ability to change the game as a Wildcat QB if Tulane has to switch things up.
This should be a close-fought affair, but don’t rule out the Green Wave getting the job done on the road for a sixth time this year.
Prediction: Tulane 27, Army 24
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