And then there was one. For just the second time in the great history of March Madness, we had nothing but one seeds in the Final Four and that has left us with a tremendous final game with the Houston Cougars and the Florida Gators.
Who holds the edge in a clash of the two teams that have more than proven their status of elites this year?
Breaking Down Florida Gators vs. Houston Cougars
If the past two weeks are predictive in any way, we should have ourselves a 40-minute battle with plenty of swings. The Gators have been on the ropes in three straight games, and as far as the Cougars are concerned, I’m not too proud to admit that I began writing the Duke/Florida preview at the under-four-minute media timeout of Saturday night’s game.
Houston was able to knock off tournament favorite Duke on Saturday night, thanks in large part to a furious 11-1 closing run over the final 74 seconds. That kick obviously decided the game, but they don’t have that opportunity if not for the last two minutes of the first half.
They scored nine points in three possessions after putting just 19 points on the board in 18 minutes, allowing their pulse to remain present heading into the half.
In doing so, they showed off a trait that we know the Gators have. Never. Say. Die.
None of us know how this title game is going to play out for sure, but I will say that you haven’t bee paying attention if you think a single run, by either team, will discourage the other. I don’t think these are the two most talented rosters in the sport, but I can’t argue against them being the most resilient and that sets the stage for a heck of a game.
- Opening Line: Florida -1
- CSN Line: Florida -4.5
My numbers like the Gators in this spot, but that’s not to rule out Houston in the slightest. Their hard-nosed defense has been a Kelvin Sampson staple for years, and I’d argue that them holding Duke to one point over the final 1:14 in the Final Four is more impressive than then scoring 11 points on the other end of the floor.
They also take care of the ball at a far superior rate to the Gators, a trait that, if repeated, can go a long way.
We’ve got our #MarchMadness finalists.
Now what?
The team that passes best has taken care of business in each of the past four championship games. Assist-to-turnover rates in this tournament:
Florida: 1.03
Houston: 2.22 pic.twitter.com/HZSPd9RWYa— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) April 6, 2025
Their path to victory might be as simple as repeating what we saw in their last game – make sure Batman doesn’t wreck the game and keep track of the Robins. Cooper Flagg got his points (27 of them), but it required him to take 35.8% of Duke’s shots, and I don’t care how special a player is – if this Houston defense knows where the ball is going and where the offense is going to be generated, you’re in trouble.
Well, it’s no secret in Florida.
I can break down all of the numbers until I’m blue in the face. On a spreadsheet, this Florida team not only grades out as an underdog, but they shouldn’t even be here. But there has been a force over the past month that is stronger than numbers. Stronger than formulas. Stronger than any statistical measure of logic.
Walter Clayton Jr.
It’s really been that simple. Every big shot, we know where it’s going. We know what he wants to do, that he operates with a singular focus, and that he has more confidence in his ability than you do in anything ever in the history of history.
That was poetic, right?
It’s hard to keep writing the same thing in a different manner. He’s been an assassin in the clutch and is trying to tie a bow on a run that will be remembered for years to come. He’s buried 38-of-42 free throws this season, allowing him to finish off the games that swing on a pivotal play or two he makes down the stretch.
The fact that he has three more turnovers than assists during these five games hasn’t mattered one bit. Does that catch up to him and the Gators at the worst possible time? Who knows.
He’s scored 64 points in 70 minutes over the past two games as the level of competition has ramped up, not once blinking as various double teams have been thrown at him and schemes designed with the lone intention of getting the ball out of his hands.
Runs like this are rare but not unheard of. Kemba Walker is the most recent name that most associate with extended dominance at the college level in this event and that’s as good an example as any. In comparing his best two-game stretch during that 2011 run to glory to what Clayton is in the midst of:
- Clayton Jr.: 36.6 points per 40 minutes, 56.3% FG, 50% 3’s
- Walker: 34.9 points per 40 minutes, 44.4% FG, 41.2% 3’s
It took Walker 19 shots to score 16 points in the title game. He was finally slowed and held without an assist in a defensive slugfest. If that were to happen, could this Gators team get by? Alijah Martin looked good against Auburn (17 points on 6-of-10 shooting), but can he assume the lead role?
He and I have as many assists over Florida’s past two games and if he were to step into the Clayton high-shot volume role on the drop of a dime, it’d certainly be new (he doesn’t have a game with more than 13 FGA since January).
The next two top scorers on this offense are Will Richard and Alex Condon, a tandem that has made five of 23 shots in 116 minutes over their past two games.
I’m not saying they aren’t capable – but I’m not going to get there from a projection standpoint.
Gator Nation, you’re tying your fate to this Clayton heater and that’s proven to be just fine up to this point. It can continue, but if he deviates from God mode, this script could flip in a hurry, even for the, in my opinion, the more talented team.
We’ve gone from 68 teams to two, and, believe it or not, this game figures to be decided in the most 2025 way possible.
The three-point line.
Is three-point percentage defense really a thing? Or is it a stat of variance that has wild swings, no matter how good the defense is?
I could cherry pick stats to sway you in either direction, but I’ll let you settle on your belief in this regard on your own. Generally speaking, I personally am more of a believer in three-point defense at the college level than the pros due to the quality of shot-maker and that’s fueling some of my score prediction.
Texas Tech shot 37% from distance against Florida and missed their chance to knock them out. Outside of that contest, opponents are just 23-for-87 against the Gators from downtown in this tournament.
That’s 26.4%.
KEEP READING: Top 5 Largest Comebacks in Final Four History
For reference, the great Lions from Lindenwood were the worst three-point shooting team in D-I this season at 26.7%. Houston’s defense is their calling card, but if they don’t make at least one-third of their triples, it may not matter.
Don’t be surprised if we see extended droughts in this game. My predictive work comes in on the Gators and the under. Florida fans — party like it’s 2007!
Score Projection: Florida wins 69-65
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