The South Carolina Gamecocks and Texas Longhorns are set for a Final Four clash that’s as familiar as it is fierce. This marks the fourth meeting between these powerhouses this season, and with a trip to the national title game on the line, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
South Carolina has taken two of the first three contests, including a commanding 64-45 victory in the SEC Championship. Dawn Staley’s squad is playing elite-level defense at the perfect time, while Texas will look to change things around and breakthrough after falling short in their last two showdowns.
South Carolina vs. Texas Betting Preview
All South Carolina vs. Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, March 28, 2025.
Spread: South Carolina -5.5
Moneyline: South Carolina -225, Texas +185
Over/Under: 124.5 points
Game Time: Friday, April 4, 2025 | 7:00 PM EST
Location: Amalie Arena | Tampa, FL
How to Watch: ESPN/ESPN2
South Carolina enters the matchup as a 5.5-point favorite, and for good reason. The Gamecocks are peaking at the right time, holding NCAA Tournament opponents to just 54.5 points per game while forcing tough looks and limiting foul trouble.
Texas, while impressive defensively themselves, allowing just 53.8 points per contest in the tournament, has struggled with fouls in key moments. That trend could be costly again, as South Carolina has attempted 45 free throws against the Longhorns this season. If the Longhorns can’t clean up their defense, they’ll find themselves chasing from behind again.
South Carolina vs. Texas CSN Winning Probability
South Carolina: 69%
Texas: 31%
Vegas has the Gamecocks favored by 5.5, which aligns closely with the CSN projection, but the model leans more heavily toward South Carolina asserting control. Texas would need a near-perfect performance to swing the outcome, something they haven’t achieved against the Gamecocks yet this season.
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Prediction for South Carolina vs. Texas
This game features two of the nation’s stingiest defenses, but South Carolina’s depth, size, and discipline make the difference. Chloe Kitts has quietly become a key weapon for Dawn Staley, averaging 12.3 points and 8.0 rebounds per game in the tournament.
Sania Feagin adds versatility and rim protection, helping anchor the Gamecocks’ elite frontcourt. Combine that with Milaysia Fulwiley’s shot-making and tempo control, and South Carolina has the kind of balanced attack that can wear teams down across four quarters.
Texas has a star in Madison Booker, and their offense, ranking top-20 in offensive efficiency, has opportunities. But in three meetings this year, the Longhorns have yet to crack South Carolina’s code.
The SEC Championship game saw South Carolina blow it wide open in the second quarter, outscoring Texas 21-6. Unless Vic Schaefer’s team has a completely new game plan, it’s hard to imagine them keeping up.
Prediction: South Carolina 68, Texas 60
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