The No. 5 seed Tennessee Lady Vols (24-9) are set to take on the No. 1 seed Texas Longhorns (33-3) in a high-stakes Sweet 16 matchup on Saturday, March 29, 2025. Tennessee pushed Texas to the limit in their previous meeting, falling 80-76 in a game that featured 15 lead changes. Now, they’ll look to pull off the upset and punch their ticket to the Elite Eight.
Tennessee vs. Texas Betting Preview
All Tennessee vs. Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, March 27, 2025.
- Spread: Texas -8.5
- Moneyline: Texas -395, Tennessee +310
- Over/Under: 155.5
- Game Time: Saturday, March 29, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Legacy Arena at BJCC | Birmingham, Ala.
- How To Watch: ABC
Texas is led by SEC Player of the Year Madison Booker, a dynamic scorer averaging 16.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game. Booker, a three-level scorer, has thrived under the bright lights and will be key in Texas’ quest for a Final Four berth.
Meanwhile, Tennessee boasts the nation’s most potent offense, averaging 87.5 points per game, but their defense has been a concern, ranking 304th in points allowed.
Texas comes into this matchup as an 8.5-point favorite, and for good reason. The Longhorns have dominated opponents all season, outscoring teams by an average of 23.5 points per game.
Their defense is among the best in the country, allowing just 55.8 points per game, which ranks 16th nationally. Tennessee, on the other hand, scores at a blistering pace but struggles defensively, giving up 70.2 points per game.
The total for this game is set at 155.5, indicating that oddsmakers expect a high-scoring affair. Given Tennessee’s offensive explosiveness and Texas’ efficiency, the over is a strong possibility.
Tennessee vs. Texas CSN Winning Probability
- Texas: 76.2%
- Tennessee: 23.8%
The CSN model gives Texas a commanding 76.2% chance to win, which aligns closely with the Vegas odds. The Longhorns’ experience and defensive edge make them a formidable opponent, but Tennessee’s offensive firepower gives them a puncher’s chance. If the Lady Vols can control the tempo and get hot from beyond the arc, they have the ability to make things interesting.
Prediction for Tennessee vs. Texas
This matchup comes down to Tennessee’s ability to score against Texas’ suffocating defense. Madison Booker is the best player on the floor and has delivered in clutch moments all season. Alongside 6-foot-4 forward Taylor Jones, who dominated Tennessee in the last meeting with 21 points and 14 rebounds, Texas has the inside-out combination to control this game.
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For Tennessee to pull off the upset, they need to hit their outside shots early and push the pace to prevent Texas from setting up its half-court defense. However, Texas has been battle-tested all season and boasts one of the most balanced rosters in the country.
Prediction: Texas 83, Tennessee 75
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