March Madness is full of surprises, but some matchups seem more lopsided than others. No. 1 seed Texas takes on No. 16 William & Mary in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, a game that presents a David vs. Goliath storyline.
The Longhorns have dominated all season, boasting an impressive 17-2 record in SEC play and a nearly flawless 14-1 mark in non-conference matchups. Meanwhile, William & Mary, despite earning their first-ever NCAA Tournament victory, enters this contest as a massive underdog.
Only one No. 16 seed in women’s NCAA Tournament history has ever taken down a No. 1 seed, Harvard’s legendary upset in 1998. Can the Tribe defy the odds, or will Texas cruise to an easy win?
Texas vs. William & Mary Betting Preview
All Texas vs. William & Mary odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, March 22, 2025.
- Spread: Texas -45.5
- Moneyline: Texas -10000, William & Mary +3000
- Over/Under: 136.5 points
- Game Time: Saturday, March 22, 2025, at 9:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Moody Center | Austin, Texas
- How To Watch: ESPN2
Texas enters this game as one of the most dominant teams in the country, outscoring opponents by an average of 23.0 points per game. The Longhorns rank 16th in scoring offense (78.9 PPG) while also maintaining a top-20 defense, allowing just 55.9 points per game.
On the other hand, William & Mary has struggled to keep up with elite competition, averaging just 62.0 points per game while allowing 65.9 PPG. The Tribe finished the regular season on a rough note, losing seven of their last eight games before making a historic run in their conference tournament.
Texas vs. William & Mary CSN Winning Probability
- CSN Winning Probability: Texas 98.9%, William & Mary 1.1%
The numbers speak for themselves. Texas has an overwhelming probability of advancing to the second round, aligning with the massive 45.5-point spread. While upsets have happened in NCAA Tournament history, the combination of Texas’ dominant play and William & Mary’s inconsistency makes an upset here extremely unlikely.
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Prediction for Texas vs. William & Mary
Texas is simply too powerful for William & Mary to handle. The Longhorns have been one of the most consistent teams in the nation, and their balance on both ends of the floor makes them a nightmare matchup for a Tribe squad that ranks outside the top 200 in scoring and defense.
Expect Texas to dictate the pace early, using their superior athleticism and depth to build a massive lead by halftime.
The biggest question isn’t whether Texas will win, but whether they will cover the 45.5-point spread. With their defensive efficiency and offensive firepower, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Longhorns reach the 90-point mark while holding William & Mary to under 50.
Prediction: Texas 88, William & Mary 45
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