The NCAA Tournament first-round matchup between No. 7-seeded Michigan State and No. 10-seeded Harvard is one to watch, as both programs bring unique storylines into this clash. Michigan State, led by head coach Robyn Fralick, is looking to capitalize on its tournament experience despite having only four players with NCAA tournament appearances.
On the other side, Harvard makes its first return to the tournament since 2007 with a program-best 24-4 record. This will be the first-ever meeting between the two teams, and a spot in the second round is on the line.
Harvard vs. Michigan State Betting Preview
All Harvard vs. Michigan State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, March 22, 2025.
- Spread
Michigan State -4.5 - Moneyline
Michigan State -190, Harvard +158 - Over/Under
136.5 total points - Game Time
Saturday, March 22, 2025, at 4:30 p.m. ET - Location
Reynolds Coliseum | Raleigh, North Carolina - How To Watch
ESPNews
Michigan State enters this game as a 4.5-point favorite, boasting a high-powered offense that averages 79.5 points per game, ranking third in the Big Ten and 14th nationally. The Spartans have struggled against the spread this season (12-14-0), particularly as favorites of 5.5 points or more (7-8).
Harvard, meanwhile, has been a strong betting team, posting a 7-1-0 record against the spread this year and a perfect 1-0 ATS as an underdog of 5.5 points or more. The Crimson’s defense will be tested against Michigan State’s fast-paced offense, as their games have averaged just 121.9 total points per game—significantly lower than the projected over/under of 136.5.
Harvard vs. Michigan State Winning Probability
Winning Probability
Michigan State 64%
Harvard 36%
The Spartans hold the statistical edge in this matchup, but Harvard’s defensive efficiency and ability to control the tempo could make this a closer game than the Vegas spread suggests.
While Michigan State has the offensive firepower to dictate the pace, Harvard’s ability to limit opponents’ scoring has kept them in close contests all season.
If the game remains low-scoring, the Crimson could have a strong chance of covering the spread—and potentially pulling off an upset.
Prediction for Michigan State vs. Harvard
This matchup will come down to Michigan State’s ability to push the pace against a Harvard team that thrives in a more controlled setting. The Spartans have the clear edge in experience, talent and offensive production, but Harvard’s disciplined approach under head coach Carrie Moore should not be underestimated.
Both teams had common opponents this season—Yale, Indiana (No. 9) and Northwestern—with Michigan State going 3-0 and Harvard going 4-0.
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Ultimately, Michigan State’s offensive depth and experience should prove to be the difference. Harvard has the potential to keep it close, but the Spartans’ scoring ability gives them the upper hand.
Prediction: Michigan State 75, Harvard 62
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