The No. 4-seed Maryland Terrapins enter the NCAA Tournament looking to extend their strong postseason history under head coach Brenda Frese. Their first-round matchup in the Birmingham 2 Regional pits them against No. 13-seed Norfolk State, a team seeking its first NCAA Tournament win in program history.
While Maryland is a heavy favorite, the Spartans boast a tough defense and could pose an early challenge in Saturday’s opening-round matchup. Can the underdog Spartans keep it close, or will the Terrapins roll into the next round?
Maryland vs. Norfolk State Betting Preview
All Maryland vs. Norfolk State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of March 21, 2025.
- Spread: Maryland -16.5
- Moneyline: Maryland -1852, Norfolk State +960
- Over/Under: 145.5 points
- Game Time: Saturday, March 22, 2025 | 4:00 p.m. ET
- Location: XFINITY Center | College Park, Md.
- How to Watch: ESPN
Maryland enters the tournament as a formidable offensive team, averaging 79.9 points per game (12th in the nation). Led by standout players Kaylene Smikle (17.7 PPG) and Shyanne Sellers, the Terrapins present a balanced scoring attack that can challenge even the most disciplined defenses.
However, their vulnerability lies in turnovers, as they rank just 31st percentile in three-pointers attempted and generate only 6.8 steals per game.
On the other side, Norfolk State relies on its strong defensive identity, allowing just 55.9 points per game (20th nationally). The Spartans can play deep into their rotation and have a marquee win over Missouri.
Yet, their struggles against ranked opponents, as seen in lopsided losses to North Carolina and Alabama, raise concerns about their ability to compete against a high-powered Maryland squad.
Maryland vs. Norfolk State CSN Winning Probability
Maryland enters this game with a CSN Winning Probability of 91.2%, making them the clear favorite according to predictive analytics. This aligns closely with Vegas odds, where Maryland’s -1852 moneyline suggests an overwhelming chance of victory.
While the Spartans’ +960 moneyline presents an enticing payout for risk-takers, the odds suggest they’ll need a near-perfect performance to pull off an upset.
The Terrapins’ ability to outscore opponents by an average of 10.6 points per game indicates they are a dominant force offensively.
Meanwhile, Norfolk State’s defensive prowess, limiting teams to just 55.9 points per game, could pose challenges for Maryland’s attack. Still, the talent disparity and home-court advantage strongly favor the Terrapins.
Prediction for Maryland vs. Norfolk State
Maryland’s experience in high-pressure situations, combined with its high-powered offense, makes it a tough matchup for Norfolk State. The Spartans’ defense has been impressive all season, but their lack of scoring depth and struggles against top-tier competition could prove costly in this opening-round game.
If Norfolk State can control the pace and force Maryland into mistakes, they may keep it within the spread. However, Maryland’s offensive firepower and ability to wear teams down over 40 minutes give them a clear edge.
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The Terrapins should advance comfortably, covering the spread while pushing the total toward the over. Expect Smikle and Sellers to have standout performances as Maryland looks to make a deep tournament run.
Prediction: Maryland 82, Norfolk State 63
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