The NCAA Tournament first round brings a lopsided but intriguing matchup between No. 3 UConn and Arkansas State.
The Huskies, led by star guard Paige Bueckers in her final March Madness appearance, enter the game as heavy favorites. UConn boasts an undefeated record against Big East opponents and is one of the top-scoring teams in the nation. Meanwhile, fresh off its first-ever Sun Belt Tournament championship, Arkansas State is making its NCAA Tournament debut and looks to shock the basketball world. Can the Red Wolves hang tough, or will UConn roll through to the second round?
UConn vs. Arkansas State Betting Preview
All UConn vs. Arkansas State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, March 22, 2025.
Spread: UConn -43.5 (-110) | Arkansas State +43.5 (-110)
Moneyline: UConn OFF | Arkansas State OFF
Over/Under: Over 148.5 (-110) | Under 148.5 (-110)
Date: Saturday, March 22
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Gampel Pavilion (Storrs, Conn.)
TV: ABC
With UConn coming in as 43.5-point favorites, oddsmakers expect a dominant performance from the Huskies. Paige Bueckers, who is averaging 19.0 points per game on 53.6% shooting, will be the key player to watch as she looks to lead UConn deep into the tournament. The Huskies are on a mission to secure their 12th national championship, and this first-round game presents an opportunity to set the tone.
On the other hand, Arkansas State is riding the momentum of its first-ever Sun Belt Tournament title. The Red Wolves have an offensive punch, averaging 73.3 points per game, but they’ll need a near-perfect effort to keep up with UConn’s firepower. The total set at 148.5 points suggests a high-scoring affair, with UConn likely doing most of the damage.
UConn vs. Arkansas State CSN Winning Probability
According to CSN’s analytics, UConn has a 98.7% chance of winning, while Arkansas State’s probability is 1.3%.
This projection aligns closely with the Vegas odds, which reflect the Huskies’ dominant stature in women’s college basketball. UConn’s perfect conference record and home-court advantage make it clear why they are expected to control this game from start to finish. However, Arkansas State has defied expectations all season, so the Red Wolves will aim to make history once again.
Prediction for UConn vs. Arkansas State
Paige Bueckers is set to put on a show in her final NCAA Tournament run, and this game presents the perfect opportunity for UConn to make a statement. The Huskies’ defensive pressure and offensive efficiency should overwhelm Arkansas State early, allowing them to cruise to victory. Expect UConn’s depth to play a significant role, with players like Azzi Fudd, who has been averaging 2.7 made three-pointers per game in the last 10 contests, stepping up as well.
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Arkansas State’s goal will be to keep the game respectable and showcase why they belong on this stage. The Red Wolves’ ability to shoot from deep (they rank 31st nationally in three-point percentage) could help them cover the massive spread if they get hot from beyond the arc.
Prediction: UConn 93, Arkansas State 49
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