Both the Wildcats and Volunteers are coming off close losses on Saturday night, yet remain ranked in the top-half of the AP Poll Top-25 (Kentucky No. 12, Tennessee No. 6). Their opposing play-styles will be on full display on Tuesday night in Knoxville.
We’ll break down our thoughts on the spread and total in this Kentucky vs. Tennessee prediction. Will Tennessee, sporting the second-ranked scoring defense in the country, be able to neutralize Kentucky’s third-ranked scoring offense? Or will the Wildcats come out with hot shooting, dictating the style of play, forcing one of the slowest-paced teams in the SEC to run the floor?
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Betting Preview
All NC State vs. Duke odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025.
- Spread
Tennessee -9.5
- Moneyline
Tennessee -410, Kentucky +320
- Over/Under
148.5 Points
- Game Time
Tuesday, Jan. 28, 7:00 ET
- Location
Food City Center | Knoxville, TN
- How To Watch
ESPN
Tennessee has been the favorite in five SEC games so far, covering the spread in three of them. When favored by nine points or more, the Volunteers boast a favorable track record, covering in eight of 12 contests. 12 of their last 16 games have gone under the listed point total.
The Wildcats have only been the underdog in three games this season, covering each of them, albeit very closely. Six of the last 10 games have gone under for Kentucky. However, only three of those were under the posted line of 148.5.
Prediction for Kentucky vs. Tennessee
Both teams are coming off close losses on Saturday night, likely highly motivated to get back in the win column. As mentioned each team plays a very different style on each side of the ball.
The Volunteers focus on the defensive side of the ball, scoring 75.1 ppg and giving up only 58.4 ppg. On the other hand, the Wildcats play with extreme pace-and-space, scoring 88.1 ppg, and allowing 76.0 ppg.
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The expected score is a Tennessee 79-69 victory, meaning Kentucky would be held over 19 points below their season average.
Fresh off scoring only 51 points in a rock-fight loss to the Auburn Tigers, I don’t see the Volunteers scoring nearly 80 points. The game was three days ago by the time of tip-off, but the physical and emotional nature of it had to have taken a toll on Tennessee.
Because of that, I’d point towards the bet of Tennessee under 78.5 total team points. To add to the reasoning, they haven’t scored over 78 points since December 23 — against Middle Tennessee State.
Kentucky ranks 18th in the nation with 10.1 three-pointers made per game. Tennessee on the other hand, ranks 95th. If Kentucky can manage to get hot from behind the arc, it could change the way the game is played. Tennessee isn’t used to playing from behind — they’re used to playing with a lead and grinding out a win.
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There’s no better bet for over three to one odds on Tuesday night than Kentucky to win outright. With how competitive the SEC is night-to-night, the conference has already begun the process of beating up on each other — why not an upset?
If you’re looking for a more conservative bet, I’d take Kentucky +9.5. As mentioned, in three games as an underdog, they’ve covered in all three. None were as high of a line at -9.5 — I believe the Wildcats are a sure-fire bet to cover.
Prediction: Kentucky 67, Tennessee 66
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