The Boise State Broncos and Penn State Nittany Lions have never met before, and the Broncos likely hoped it would stay that way. The two will battle in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, with a bout against Notre Dame or Georgia right around the corner.
So, who will come out on top? Our Penn State vs. Boise State prediction dives into everything you need to know — from the latest betting odds to what’s on the line for both teams as they square off in the second round of the 2024 College Football Playoff.
Penn State vs. Boise State College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Betting Preview
All Penn State vs. Boise State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -7 - Spread
Penn State -11.5 - Moneyline
Penn State -395, Boise State +310 - Over/Under
53.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET, Tuesday, Dec. 31 - Location
State Farm Stadium | Glendale, Ariz. - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
ESPN
Boise State has only been an underdog once this year (+17.5 against the Oregon Ducks) and nearly won that game outright (37-34). While the program has struggled to cover as double-digit favorites this year, it is 3-0 against the spread under 10 points.
The Broncos’ impressive run hasn’t always come with fireworks, though, with the under cashing in four of their last five contests.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Penn State, who just smacked the SMU Mustangs in the first round of the playoff, has now covered five of its last six games as a favorite.
The offense isn’t the most explosive on paper, but it has helped push the total over in three straight road games.
Penn State’s Winning Probability
Say what you will about James Franklin’s record in big games; he’s led the Nittany Lions to three straight double-digit win seasons and 10 bowl appearances in 11 years. Their path to the 2024 natty is about as “easy” as they come, too.
Penn State blew the brakes off of SMU, and now it steps on the field against the first-ever Group of Five program to reach the 12-team College Football Playoff.
- at Boise State: 70.3%
Boise State’s Winning Probability
Since taking over as head coach toward the end of last season, Spencer Danielson has guided the Broncos to back-to-back Mountain West championships and produced a 12-1 record in 2024 — the program’s best since the 2000s Chris Peterson era.
However, the FPM believes the Broncos’ Cinderella story will come to an end in the CFP quarterfinals.
- vs. Penn State: 29.7%
Prediction for Penn State vs. Boise State
The UNLV Rebels held Boise State to just 21 points in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, and the Broncos lost to the only Power Four team on their schedule in 2024 — albeit the Oregon Ducks by only three points (37-34).
First-year starter Maddux Madsen has played well for the majority of the season, but the Nittany Lions really only have one player to worry about: RB Ashton Jeanty. He finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting to Colorado’s WR/CB Travis Hunter after leading the country in carries (344), yards (2,497), and TDs (29).
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In fact, Jeanty needs just 132 yards in the College Football Playoff to break Barry Sanders’ FBS single-season rushing record — he’ll need to get all 132 against the Nittany Lions because the odds of the Broncos advancing are slim.
Yes, Boise State holds a perfect 3-0 all-time record in the Fiesta Bowl (2007, 2010, and 2014). And yes, Danielson said on the Rich Eisen Show, “I think I’ll be fired if I say we’re not going to wear that same jersey combination, so we’re going to roll with the blue-white-orange.”
But history and superstition won’t save the Broncos from playing a Penn State team that just handed SMU a 38-10 loss in the first round of the postseason.
The Nittany Lions can simply out-talent and outmuscle Boise State at every level of the field, but particularly in the trenches, which is bad news for Jeanty. They rank 11th in total EPA, second in offensive success rate, 19th in defensive success rate, and eighth in net points per drive.
Boise State is no slouch in any of those metrics (38th, 15th, 27th, and 13th, respectively), but it doesn’t hold any meaningful edge on either side of the ball.
I expect Jeanty and Co. to put up a better fight than the Mustangs, but they’ll still lose by multiple scores as Franklin moves one more game toward rewriting his “big game” narrative.
Prediction: Penn State 35, Boise State 20
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