The first quarterfinal of the 12-team College Football Playoff to be set, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Georgia Bulldogs travel to New Orleans to do battle in the AllState Sugar Bowl to determine who progresses to the semifinal. Can Marcus Freeman lead his team to a victory over Kirby Smart’s men? Have the Bulldogs got enough bite without their starting quarterback?
Our Notre Dame vs. Georgia prediction dives into those questions, breaks down the latest betting odds, and projects the final score of this College Football Playoff quarterfinal.
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Sugar Bowl Betting Preview
All Notre Dame vs. Georgia odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Georgia -3 - Spread
Georgia -1 - Moneyline
Georgia -115, Notre Dame -105 - Over/Under
44.5 points - Game time
8:45 p.m. ET - Location
Caesars Superdome | New Orleans, LA - Predicted Weather at Kick
Game played indoors - How to Watch
ESPN
There’s not a rich history between the Bulldogs and Notre Dame, with just three previous matchups between the two storied programs. Facing Georgia hasn’t been that lucky for the Irish, with three defeats, including the 1981 Sugar Bowl and the most recent matchup (in Athens) in 2019. All three previous games have been one-score affairs, setting the scene for a tight game.
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The latest Notre Dame vs. Georgia betting odds showcase just how close this Sugar Bowl matchup may be. Early lines have the Bulldogs as a one-point favorite, while CFN FPM gives Georgia a field goal advantage. The Irish won the only other time they were an underdog in 2024, while Smart’s SEC champions have covered the spread just four times all season.
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Notre Dame has a 42.6% chance of beating the Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl. While disheartening for Fighting Irish fans, it’s worth noting that our metric made the program a slender favorite over the Indiana Hoosiers in their first round matchup, and everyone saw how that game played out.
- vs. Georgia: 42.6%
Georgia’s Winning Probability
Conversely, our metric gives Georgia a 57.4% chance of fighting off the Irish in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day. This is one of the most difficult matchups that the Bulldogs could have drawn based on the CFN FPM win probabilities, with multiple teams given less than a 40% chance of beating the SEC champion.
- vs. Notre Dame: 57.4%
Prediction for Notre Dame vs. Georgia
While writing this Notre Dame vs. Georgia prediction ahead of the remaining first-round matchups, it’s hard to deny that this Sugar Bowl clash holds as much intrigue and excitement as any other potential quarterfinal. The rarity of the encounter, the stakes involved, and the storylines around two storied programs add up to create drama of the highest caliber.
Can Freeman lead his 12-1 Fighting Irish team over their College Football Playoff hump and take a scalp that would confirm their legitimacy as a contender? Will Georgia kick on from their overtime SEC title win to establish itself as the dominant college football force in a year where they’ve overcome many obstacles, including lower-than-normal national perception?
The most significant obstacle for Georgia to overcome is the loss of quarterback Carson Beck. The talented passer, who has endured a rollercoaster of a season versus a backdrop of expectation, picked up an arm injury in the SEC Championship Game win over the Texas Longhorns and has been ruled out for the Sugar Bowl, being replaced by Gunner Stockton.
Stockton was serviceable in relief of Beck against Texas, and the Georgia staff have spoken effusively about his ability, but there’s no denying that his inclusion into the starting lineup changes the dynamic for the Bulldogs offense. There’ll be a heightened focus on an offensive line that hasn’t been quite up to recent Georgia standards, and the running back room should shoulder the load.
A ground game beat ’em up would suit the Fighting Irish. There isn’t a more physical team in football right now than Notre Dame, which combines bruising physicality on defense with a healthy dose of power runs and explosive plays on offense.
The Georgia offensive line will have its hands full with a defense led by the imposing figure of defensive lineman Rylie Mills. Meanwhile, Stockton’s ability to trouble the deep third and weaponize a receiving room that has underperformed this season will be compromised by the presence of Xavier Watts, Adon Shuler, and CFN Freshman All-American Leonard Moore.
In recent years, the Bulldogs have been the dominant defensive force in college football. While there is no denying that a combination of innovative looks and talented playmakers like Malaki Starks and sack-leaders Jalon Walker and Chaz Chambliss makes Georgia dangerous, there are areas of weakness that Notre Dame can exploit.
Only three SEC teams have allowed more rushing plays of 20+ yards in 2024 than Georgia. They also rank in the lower half of the SEC for 10+ rushing yard plays. In Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame possesses one of the most explosive playmakers in all of college football. His 98-yard touchdown run against Indiana was just a snapshot of his ability to terrorize defenses.
The combination of explosive play potential from the offense and a defense that has allowed 20+ points in just two of their 13 games this season, gives Notre Dame a legitimate recipe to cook Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. There’s a reason that Freeman has attracted NFL attention, which has led to a contract extension. He has his team prepared and fired up to play every game.
I’d argue that the Fighting Irish are one of the most dangerous teams in the country right now. That said, it’s always ill-advised to write off a Smart-led Georgia team that rises to the occasion and thrives off negativity thrust its way from outside sources. He can be the multiplier that carries a team past the sum of its parts.
Yet, Notre Dame might have his number in the Sugar Bowl.
Prediction: Notre Dame 30, Georgia 23
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