Usually, predicting bowl games is about figuring out which teams are excited about their placement and which are just ready to get to the offseason. But it’s hard to figure out how the Iowa Hawkeyes and Missouri Tigers feel about a visit to the Music City Bowl.
Here, we’ll break down the numbers and trends to know before you bet. Find out our thoughts on the Music City Bowl in this Iowa vs. Missouri prediction.
Iowa vs. Missouri Music City Bowl Betting Preview
All Iowa vs. Missouri odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Dec. 19, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Missouri -2 - Spread
Missouri -3 - Moneyline
Missouri -155, Iowa +130 - Over/Under
40.5 points - Game Time
Monday, Dec. 30, 2:30 p.m. ET - Location
Nissan Stadium | Nashville, TN - How To Watch
ESPN
Both of these teams are dealing with a few injuries, opt-outs, and losses to the transfer portal. Missouri is particularly hard-hit on the offensive side of the ball as top draft prospects Luther Burden III and Armand Membou have opted out, while the Tigers are also missing receiver Mookie Cooper and center Connor Tollison due to injury.
Star Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson has also opted out, and the Hawkeyes are down to one scholarship quarterback. Brendan Sullivan is the only remaining scholarship quarterback for Iowa, and he’s coming back from an injury.
It’s an indictment on the Iowa offense that this has hardly moved the line. After starting at Missouri -1.5, the line has ticked to its current number of -3. Meanwhile, the total has moved down slightly, from 41.5 to 40.5.
Iowa’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is in line with Vegas, making Iowa a two-point underdog, translating to a winning probability below 50%.
- vs. Missouri: 46.6%
Missouri’s Winning Probability
Missouri is the slight favorite in this one, according to CFN’s FPM.
- vs. Iowa: 53.4%
Prediction for Iowa vs. Missouri
I’m leaning into a theory I’ve had all season regarding the Hawkeyes, and Iowa fans might hate me for it. Actually…they’ve watched this offense enough to agree.
Despite the uptick in points per game, I don’t think Iowa’s offense is better than last season’s. Instead, the Hawkeyes have continued to struggle against good defenses while relying on Johnson’s individual brilliance to run up the score on bad defenses.
Johnson has opted out of the bowl game, so we’re getting ready to find out if I’m right.
I haven’t been overly impressed with Missouri this season, but they’re a solid team and ranked. While rankings really don’t matter, there’s a disturbing trend for the Hawkeyes against top-25 squads.
Iowa has been outscored 127-7 against the last four ranked teams it has played. The one score? A garbage-time touchdown by Johnson when the Hawkeyes trailed Ohio State 35-0 in the fourth quarter earlier this season.
If we go further back, the Hawkeyes have been held under 20 points in their last six games against ranked teams.
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Without Johnson, where is the offense coming from? He has 23 of the team’s 41 offensive touchdowns this season and well over half of Iowa’s scrimmage yardage.
In Big Ten play, the splits are even more lopsided. Without Johnson, what’s the ceiling for the Hawkeyes’ offense?
Missouri has been far more balanced this season. When Brady Cook has been healthy, the offense has moved the ball well, even against quality defenses. They haven’t relied on a single player. While the offense has been inconsistent, it’s done enough when Cook has been healthy to win plenty of games.
I don”t expect them to have an offensive explosion, but it should be more than enough to beat Iowa. Sorry Hawkeyes fans, but I’m genuinely curious if the offense scores.
It’s an Iowa bowl game; take the under and the opposition.
Prediction: Missouri 20, Iowa 3
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