Iowa vs. Missouri Prediction: Can the Hawkeyes Score a Point Without Kaleb Johnson?

    When it comes to this year's Music City Bowl, it's unclear to know how each team feels going in. What that in mind, what is our Iowa vs. Missouri prediction?

    Usually, predicting bowl games is about figuring out which teams are excited about their placement and which are just ready to get to the offseason. But it’s hard to figure out how the Iowa Hawkeyes and Missouri Tigers feel about a visit to the Music City Bowl.

    Here, we’ll break down the numbers and trends to know before you bet. Find out our thoughts on the Music City Bowl in this Iowa vs. Missouri prediction.

    CFN CFB Playoff Predictor
    College Football Network’s College Football Playoff Predictor is a tool that allows you to play out various weekly scenarios to see how the CFP picture changes with each scenario.

    Iowa vs. Missouri Music City Bowl Betting Preview

    All Iowa vs. Missouri odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Dec. 19, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      Missouri -2
    • Spread
      Missouri -3
    • Moneyline
      Missouri -155, Iowa +130
    • Over/Under
      40.5 points
    • Game Time
      Monday, Dec. 30, 2:30 p.m. ET
    • Location
      Nissan Stadium | Nashville, TN
    • How To Watch
      ESPN

    Both of these teams are dealing with a few injuries, opt-outs, and losses to the transfer portal. Missouri is particularly hard-hit on the offensive side of the ball as top draft prospects Luther Burden III and Armand Membou have opted out, while the Tigers are also missing receiver Mookie Cooper and center Connor Tollison due to injury.

    Star Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson has also opted out, and the Hawkeyes are down to one scholarship quarterback. Brendan Sullivan is the only remaining scholarship quarterback for Iowa, and he’s coming back from an injury.

    MORE: Who’s opted not to play in a bowl game? Track them all with our College Football Bowl Game Opt-Out Tracker!

    It’s an indictment on the Iowa offense that this has hardly moved the line. After starting at Missouri -1.5, the line has ticked to its current number of -3. Meanwhile, the total has moved down slightly, from 41.5 to 40.5.

    Iowa’s Winning Probability

    CFN’s FPM is in line with Vegas, making Iowa a two-point underdog, translating to a winning probability below 50%.

    • vs. Missouri: 46.6%

    Missouri’s Winning Probability

    Missouri is the slight favorite in this one, according to CFN’s FPM.

    • vs. Iowa: 53.4%

    Prediction for Iowa vs. Missouri

    I’m leaning into a theory I’ve had all season regarding the Hawkeyes, and Iowa fans might hate me for it. Actually…they’ve watched this offense enough to agree.

    Despite the uptick in points per game, I don’t think Iowa’s offense is better than last season’s. Instead, the Hawkeyes have continued to struggle against good defenses while relying on Johnson’s individual brilliance to run up the score on bad defenses.

    Johnson has opted out of the bowl game, so we’re getting ready to find out if I’m right.

    I haven’t been overly impressed with Missouri this season, but they’re a solid team and ranked. While rankings really don’t matter, there’s a disturbing trend for the Hawkeyes against top-25 squads.

    Iowa has been outscored 127-7 against the last four ranked teams it has played. The one score? A garbage-time touchdown by Johnson when the Hawkeyes trailed Ohio State 35-0 in the fourth quarter earlier this season.

    If we go further back, the Hawkeyes have been held under 20 points in their last six games against ranked teams.

    FOLLOW ALONG: Track Every Transfer Portal Entrant in our CFN Transfer Portal Tracker now!

    Without Johnson, where is the offense coming from? He has 23 of the team’s 41 offensive touchdowns this season and well over half of Iowa’s scrimmage yardage.

    In Big Ten play, the splits are even more lopsided. Without Johnson, what’s the ceiling for the Hawkeyes’ offense?

    Missouri has been far more balanced this season. When Brady Cook has been healthy, the offense has moved the ball well, even against quality defenses. They haven’t relied on a single player. While the offense has been inconsistent, it’s done enough when Cook has been healthy to win plenty of games.

    I don”t expect them to have an offensive explosion, but it should be more than enough to beat Iowa. Sorry Hawkeyes fans, but I’m genuinely curious if the offense scores.

    It’s an Iowa bowl game; take the under and the opposition.

    Prediction: Missouri 20, Iowa 3

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