Bowl games often have a regional flair and pit two somewhat equal teams together, but it’s rare for fans to get a rivalry game during bowl season. This year, the Military Bowl did just that, though few fans outside of the Tar Heel state know it.
The East Carolina Pirates and NC State Wolfpack have a long, storied history. Find out how that could impact the outcome in this East Carolina vs. NC State prediction.
East Carolina vs. NC State Military Bowl Betting Preview
All East Carolina vs. NC State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Dec. 19, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
NC State -8.5 - Spread
NC State -5.5 - Moneyline
NC State -218, NC State +180 - Over/Under
58.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Dec. 28, 5:45 p.m. ET - Location
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium | Annapolis, MD - How To Watch
ESPN
Both teams will be a bit thin at a few positions after being affected by the transfer portal and injuries. They’ll each be down their top receiver, as ECU’s Chase Sowell and NC State’s Kevin Concepcion are both transferring this offseason. Meanwhile, injuries to the secondaries could make things interesting on the outside.
The line movement for this game has been insignificant so far. After starting at NC State -5, the line has ticked to its current number of -5.5. The total has moved down slightly, from 59.5 to 58.5.
East Carolina’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly lower on the Pirates than Vegas, making East Carolina an 8.5-point underdog.
- vs. NC State: 25.8%
NC State’s Winning Probability
With CFN’s FPM slightly lower on East Carolina, that means they’re a bit higher on NC State winning than what Vegas thinks.
- vs. ECU: 74.2%
Prediction for East Carolina vs. NC State
As a North Carolina native, I can say that East Carolina and NC State hate each other and that this game is one of the best under-the-radar rivalries in the southeast. These teams are back to playing somewhat frequently after the series was suspended in 1987.
Why was it suspended, you ask?
Like most things, it was driven by money. It was getting too expensive to repair the damage to the field every year as fans destroyed goalposts, dug up end-zone lettering, and otherwise forced costly facility repairs each time the teams played.
Even though the Wolfpack are in the ACC and the Pirates in the AAC, they’ve still played 13 times since 1996. NC State has won the last three meetings and holds a 7-6 series lead since it was revived.
Five of the last 10 have been decided by one score.
In 2024, the Pirates have the momentum. After firing head coach Mike Houston on Oct. 20, the Pirates are 4-1 with only a loss to the Navy Midshipmen in the season finale. NC State, meanwhile, limped to the finish line, losing two of three and needing a win against the North Carolina Tar Heels just to make the postseason.
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Both of these quarterbacks have been revelations for their teams. ECU’s Katin Houser threw 18 touchdowns in his last six games, adding two scores on the ground and averaging over 300 total yards per game.
True freshman CJ Bailey has 19 total touchdowns this season, but he’s been prone to turnovers in spurts, including three interceptions against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. When he’s on, though, Bailey is a true dual-threat playmaker for the Wolfpack, and he’s developed as the year has progressed.
I really like Houser against a banged-up defense, though. He’s punished secondaries down the field and isn’t afraid to push the ball vertically.
East Carolina is going to be hungry for a fifth win under new coach Blake Harrell, especially one against a rival. I’m not sure I can say the same about a 6-6 NC State team that is more focused on the transfer portal than the Military Bowl.
Take the points and sprinkle the Pirates on the moneyline. I lean toward this being a shootout that ticks over the total late, but I’m less confident in that than I am in Harrell’s squad.
Prediction: East Carolina 31, NC State 28
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