The College Football Playoff may have slipped away, but the Iowa State Cyclones and Miami Hurricanes still have one final opportunity to close out the 2024 season on a high note.
Iowa State’s dreams were crushed by a gut-wrenching loss in the Big 12 Championship, while Miami faltered down the stretch, losing two of its last three games and falling short of an ACC title berth.
Who will emerge victorious? Our Iowa State vs. Miami (FL) prediction dives into everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.
Iowa State vs. Miami (FL) Pop-Tarts Bowl Betting Preview
All Iowa State vs. Miami (FL) odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 28, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Miami -1 - Spread
Miami -4 - Moneyline
Miami -175, Iowa State +145 - Over/Under
61 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 28 - Location
Camping World Stadium | Orlando, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
ABC
December is not the month for both of these teams, as the Cyclones and ‘Canes are each 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games played in the month.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
However, the over has been a trendy bet for each, with Iowa State hitting it in its last three on the road and Miami cashing it in 11 of its last 15 contests overall.
Iowa State’s Winning Probability
Matt Campbell has built a solid foundation in Ames, with just two losing seasons in his nine-year tenure. The Cyclones are coming off their best season yet, finishing 10-3 after a loss in the Big 12 title game. It was their first double-digit win season in program history, and they’ll look to make it 11 wins in the Pop-Tarts Bowl against Miami.
- at Miami: 48.8%
Miami (FL)’s Winning Probability
Since their early 2000s dominance, the Hurricanes have struggled to regain their place among the ACC elite. Head coach Mario Cristobal entered the 2024 season under immense pressure to deliver, and deliver he did, with Washington State transfer QB Cam Ward leading Miami to a 10-2 record.
However, the ‘Canes haven’t won a bowl game since 2016. Can they end the drought against Iowa State?
- vs. Iowa State: 51.2%
Prediction for Iowa State vs. Miami (FL)
Miami’s Heisman finalist QB Cam Ward has confirmed he’ll play in this game, though he’ll be without WR Isaiah Horton, who entered the transfer portal. Otherwise, Miami’s roster is largely intact.
Iowa State, similarly, has avoided major roster losses, with their most notable departures being rotational EDGE players Kenard Snyder and Trent Jones II.
MORE: 2024 College Football Bowl Game Opt-Out Tracker
But the big question is whether Ward has enough firepower to snap Miami’s five-game bowl losing streak.
Yes, Miami stumbled to close the season, but what Ward, WR Xavier Restrepo, and RB Damien Martinez have accomplished this year has been remarkable. Miami’s offense ranks first in EPA, third in success rate, and second in net points per drive.
How does Iowa State compare? Not as favorably: 31st in EPA, 88th in success rate, and 52nd in net points per drive.
And before you say, “It’s not offense vs. offense!” let’s look at the defensive metrics, where Miami also holds the edge:
- Defensive success rate: Miami 15th; Iowa State 74th
- Early down EPA: Miami 36th; Iowa State 45th
- Red-zone rate: Miami 78.79%, 30th; Iowa State 87.50%, t-96th
- Sacks per game: Miami 2.6, t-25th; Iowa State 1.0, t-129th
It’s hard to argue against Ward and the Hurricanes snapping their bowl drought here. Miami’s high-powered offense and superior defensive metrics should be enough to spoil Iowa State’s historic season.
Yeah, take Ward and Miami to end the Cyclones’ run just short of glory.
Prediction: Miami 34, Iowa State 23
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