A budding recruiting rivalry spills over to the gridiron on Dec. 27 when the Texas A&M Aggies take on the USC Trojans in the Las Vegas Bowl.
Find out which team we think wins in this Texas A&M vs. USC prediction.
Texas A&M vs. USC Las Vegas Bowl Betting Preview
All Texas A&M vs. USC odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas A&M -9 - Spread
Texas A&M -3.5 - Moneyline
Texas A&M -170, USC +142 - Over/Under
52 points - Game Time
Friday, Dec. 27, 10:30 p.m. ET - Location
Allegiant Stadium | Las Vegas, NV - How To Watch
ESPN
While Texas A&M will miss a few players due to opt-outs before the 2025 NFL Draft or transfer portal, the Trojans will be shells of themselves, with up to 10 key contributors missing the game.
The line on this game has moved but only slightly. After starting at a near pick ’em, the line has moved to Texas A&M -3.5 and could continue to move in that direction if the Trojans have more opt-outs. The total has moved up slightly, from 50.5 to 51.5.
Texas A&M’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is much more bullish on the Aggies, making Texas A&M a nine-point favorite. Their 74.9% winning probability is the third-highest percentage of the bowl season.
- vs. USC: 74.9%
USC’s Winning Probability
Based on the Aggies’ winning probability, the Trojans are obviously significant underdogs. USC has been in every game this season, with just one loss by more than seven points, a 14-point loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to end the season in which the Trojans threw multiple 99-yard pick-sixes in the fourth quarter.
- vs. Texas A&M: 25.1%
Prediction for Texas A&M vs. USC
USC has a winning problem, and based on the exodus in the transfer portal, the Trojans might also have a culture problem.
Head coach Lincoln Riley benched starting quarterback Miller Moss after nine games, citing his lack of ball security, only for backup Jayden Maiava to fumble twice and throw three pick-sixes in the final three games of the year.
Riley has a superb regular-season coaching record, but he’s 2-7 in the postseason, something that I think is worthy of being monitored. The Trojans will also be without their top two running backs and top three receivers for the Las Vegas Bowl.
There’s not much recently to inspire confidence on the other side. After starting 7-1 under Mike Elko, the Aggies sat 10th in the College Football Playoff rankings before losing three of four to end the season, all in very different ways.
The Aggies were rattled when the South Carolina Gamecocks gained momentum at Williams-Brice Stadium, which snowballed into a 24-point loss. Two weeks later, the defense couldn’t stop an Auburn Tigers offense that struggled in its 11 other games this season. Against the Texas Longhorns, still with a chance to make the SEC Championship and College Football Playoff, the Aggies couldn’t move the ball.
What started as a promising season quickly ended in a trip to the Las Vegas Bowl.
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These teams have sparred on the recruiting trail recently as well, trading five-star flips before National Signing Day. First, the Trojans flipped top 10 quarterback Husan Longstreet from the Aggies. Texas A&M got revenge a week later when receiver Jerome Myles backed off his USC pledge and quickly signed with the Aggies.
Now, they’ll do battle on the field in a game that feels crucial to the future of these programs.
Both teams desperately want to seize momentum heading into the offseason, but only one can win. USC has shown it doesn’t get blown out, but I have serious concerns about its ability to win a close game. This could be the one where it all unravels.
Take Texas A&M and the points. I think USC will struggle to score without its top skill players. The Aggies are missing their top pass rushers, but I don’t think the Trojans have the running game or downfield receiver play to make them pay.
Marcel Reed’s legs could be key for a Texas A&M offense that has thrived at times this season and struggled at others. Expect the Aggies to come out hot, deflating the Trojans.
Prediction: Texas A&M 30, USC 17
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