The Arkansas State Red Wolves have turned a potentially lost season into the chance for eight wins, while the Bowling Green Falcons were a few plays away from a MAC Championship appearance.
Which team takes momentum into the offseason, leaving the other to think about wasted opportunities? Find out which way we lean in this Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green prediction.
Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green 68 Ventures Bowl Betting Preview
All Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Bowling Green -7 - Spread
Bowling Green -7 - Moneyline
Bowling Green -258, Arkansas State +210 - Over/Under
50.5 points - Game Time
Thursday, Dec. 26, 9 p.m. ET - Location
Hancock Whitney Stadium | Mobile, AL - How To Watch
ESPN
While both teams have a few players entering the transfer portal, their rosters are in decent shape heading into the 68 Ventures Bowl. Bowling Green could be missing starting right tackle Alex Wollschlaeger and linebacker Jordan Sipp Jr., but star tight end Harold Fannin Jr. is expected to play.
The line on this game hasn’t moved much, opening at Bowling Green -7.5 and ticking down to Bowling Green -7. The total has moved up from 49.5. Fannin’s decision to play is exciting for the Falcons, football fans, and bettors alike.
Arkansas State’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is completely in line with Vegas, making Arkansas State a seven-point underdog. That translates to a winning probability of 31.2%.
- vs. Bowling Green: 31.2%
Bowling Green’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Falcons are moderate favorites, with a winning probability of 68.8%. Despite the identical records, Bowling Green is the better team on paper, even if the MAC has struggled in bowl games over the past few seasons.
- vs. Arkansas State: 68.8%
Prediction for Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green
While I’m a huge fan of analytics, I rarely speak directly on analytical principles in these previews. I’m breaking that trend here.
Analytically speaking, in small sample sizes, a coach’s record in close games is primarily luck. These two teams are a lesson in this principle.
While both are 7-5, they’ve gotten there in very different ways. Butch Jones’ Arkansas State squad has been outscored significantly on the season. When they’ve lost, it’s been by an average of 26.2 points per game, with multiple blowouts.
They’ve won six games by seven or fewer points, including a controversial (incorrect) Week 1 win over FCS Central Arkansas. They’ve been outscored by 90 points this season.
On the other hand, Bowling Green is 1-3 in one-score games, including close losses to the Texas A&M Aggies and Penn State Nittany Lions.
The Falcons have a point differential of 78 this season, and when they’ve won, they’ve won big.
Analytically speaking, that implies a wide gap in quality between these teams. Can the Falcons exploit that?
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Assuming Fannin plays, I expect the Falcons to move the ball at will over a team that has survived on turnover luck this season. The Red Wolves are 132nd in yards per rush allowed and 117th in yards per pass allowed.
Now, they face the best receiver they’ve faced all season and an offense that simply doesn’t turn the ball over, with the 19th-fewest turnovers in the country.
All of these things suggest a return to the mean. I typically don’t bet on MAC teams in bowl games, but I’ve already played this one myself.
Take the Falcons in a blowout that goes over as Jones’ luck finally runs out. I love the Falcons against a Red Wolves team that is 1-4 against the spread as more than a field-goal underdog.
Prediction: Bowling Green 37, Arkansas State 20
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