On paper, the GameAbove Sports Bowl is one of the more lopsided matchups. Still, football games aren’t played on paper, and the Toledo Rockets are looking for the second Power Four win of an otherwise disappointing season when they face the Pittsburgh Panthers.
The Panthers’ health looms large in a fascinating matchup. Find out which way we lean in this Pittsburgh vs. Toledo prediction.
Pittsburgh vs. Toledo GameAbove Sports Bowl Betting Preview
All Pittsburgh vs. Toledo odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Dec. 16, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pittsburgh -3.5 - Spread
Pittsburgh -7 - Moneyline
Pittsburgh -258, Toledo +210 - Over/Under
51.5 points - Game Time
Thursday, Dec. 26, 2 p.m. ET - Location
Ford Field | Detroit - How To Watch
ESPN
Unlike many other bowl games, the line movement for the Sports Bowl seems to be simply a generic betting movement. Bettors love underdogs this time of year, so the line drop from nine points to seven points is likely natural movement rather than movement influenced by players entering the transfer portal.
There is an interesting health storyline here. Both Pittsburgh starting quarterback Eli Holstein and running back Desmond Reid missed the regular season finale. While Reid should be back, we’re not sure about Holstein’s status, and with backup Nate Yarnell in the transfer portal, there’s an enormous perceived dropoff between Holstein and David Lynch down the totem pole.
Pittsburgh’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly lower on the Panthers, making them 3.5-point favorites. That translates to a winning probability of 58.9%.
That, obviously, could change if there’s an update to Holstein’s status.
- vs. Toledo: 58.9%
Toledo’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Rockets are slight underdogs, with a winning probability of 41.1%. Toledo is relatively unaffected by the transfer portal and opt-outs but is still likely the less talented team.
- vs. Pittsburgh: 41.1%
Prediction for Pittsburgh vs. Toledo
This game comes down to Holstein’s health. Not only is the offense a shell of itself without him, but that’s with capable backup Yarnell at the helm. Without Yarnell, the drop-off from Lynch is presumably significant.
While Reid is reportedly ready to go, he could play at less than 100%.
So, while this game is one of the least affected by opt-outs, it’s heavily influenced by injuries, which makes predicting it tricky, especially with two volatile teams.
Both Toledo and Pittsburgh have had high highs and low lows.
The Panthers started 7-0 before dropping five straight games while averaging 19.2 points per game down the stretch. Toledo has been unpredictable from week to week, blowing out the Mississippi State Bulldogs and handily beating the Miami Redhawks but also losing to the Akron Zips and looking uncompetitive against both the Bowling Green Falcons and Buffalo Bulls.
The one constant is that Toledo can’t run the ball. The Rockets finished the season 108th in rushing and never had a player reach 80 rushing yards in regulation.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, excelled in the running game early and struggled late. The key is whether the Panthers can move the ball on the ground against a solid Group of Five rush defense — but a Group of Five rush defense, nonetheless.
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Ultimately, I think Pittsburgh has the horses to eventually overwhelm the Toledo front. But it won’t be easy, and it won’t be instant. The Rockets have the explosive passing game to hit a big play or two to stay within striking distance. That being said, I tend to lean toward the sentiments of casual bettors.
Seven points is a lot for a team that hasn’t won since before Halloween.
I still think Pittsburgh will win, but I’m not willing to bet the spread. Take the Rockets against the spread in a great game.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Toledo 23
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