Predicting modern bowl games is often a matter of psychological evaluation more than handicapping. That could be the case with this year’s Myrtle Beach Bowl (played in Conway) between the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and UTSA Roadrunners.
One team has a few opt-outs. The other will start a quarterback who has never taken a snap at the college level. How does that impact the potential outcome of the Myrtle Beach Bowl? Find out in our Coastal Carolina vs. UTSA prediction.
Coastal Carolina vs. UTSA Myrtle Beach Bowl Betting Preview
All Coastal Carolina vs. UTSA odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Dec. 16, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UTSA -4.5 - Spread
UTSA -9 - Moneyline
UTSA -325, Coastal Carolina +260 - Over/Under
56 points - Game Time
Monday, Dec. 23, 11 a.m. ET - Location
Brooks Stadium | Conway, SC - How To Watch
ESPN
This line started at UTSA -6.5 and stretched to its current position at UTSA -9 when news of Coastal Carolina’s quarterback transfers came out. Both Ethan Vasko and Noah Kim entered the transfer portal. Our CFN spread line of UTSA -4 accounts for a modest home-field advantage for the Chanticleers.
While the bowl is treated as a neutral-site game, with the Chanticleers listed as the road team, it will actually be played at their home, Brooks Stadium. The current spread and total imply a final score close to 33-24 in favor of the Roadrunners.
Coastal Carolina’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly higher on the Chanticleers, making them underdogs by only 4.5 points. That translates to a winning probability of 37.4%.
The biggest question is at the quarterback position, but they’ve also lose a couple of defensive starters and offensive skill contributors to the transfer portal this offseason.
- vs. UTSA: 37.4%
UTSA’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Roadrunners are moderate favorites, with a winning probability of 62.6%. Head coach Jeff Traylor has been outspoken about the poor timing of bowl season and the transfer portal, but his Roadrunners should be close to full strength, minus a couple of potential losses on the defensive line.
- vs. UTSA: 62.6%
Prediction for Coastal Carolina vs. UTSA
While we’ve never seen Coastal Carolina quarterback Tad Hudson play in college, I covered him extensively in high school. He has a strong arm and throws a catchable ball. He’s also a capable leader.
However, when he committed early in his junior year to the North Carolina Tar Heels, I questioned his recruiting ranking and had him graded as a Group of Five player.
It’s concerning that he’s never had even one snap at the college level. While neither Vasko nor Kim were elite quarterbacks under Tim Beck, I question whether the dropoff is worth only 2.5 points, as Vegas suggests.
UTSA seems a bit hungrier. That’s not hard-hitting football analysis; it’s just a fact of the modern mid-tier bowl game. Coastal Carolina will want to defend its home turf, but UTSA is –and has been — the better team.
But are the Roadrunners nine points better than the Chanticleers?
I think so.
After stumbling out of the gate, Traylor’s squad played well down the stretch, winning three of four to finish the season. The Roadrunners were two weird one-score losses against bad teams away from an 8-4 regular season, and I think a winning season means more to this team than Beck’s piecemeal squad.
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The Chanticleers could be missing six starters on an already suspect defense (depending on the injury status of several players who missed the final game of the year) against an offense that is clicking under quarterback Owen McCown’s leadership.
As the Roadrunners try to build momentum heading into the offseason, we, as bettors, need to trust the more reliable quarterback.
UTSA’s offense has found another gear since McCown suddenly became a dual-threat quarterback in November. In his last four games of the year, McCown ran for 241 yards, more than twice as much as he had in his first 12 starts. Since he’s started running the ball, the offense is flying, averaging 41.75 points per game.
I like that to continue against a beat-up defense. Hudson, even at his best, won’t be able to keep up. Take the Roadrunners in a blowout.
Prediction: UTSA 41, Coastal Carolina 20
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