The California Bears and UNLV Rebels met for the first time not too long ago, with the Bears winning 20-14 early in the 2022 season. Yet, both programs are experiencing some turbulence after impressive campaigns.
Who will come out on top? Our California vs. UNLV prediction breaks down everything you need to know — from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both teams as they battle in the Art of Sport LA Bowl.
California vs. UNLV LA Bowl Betting Preview
All California vs. UNLV odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 14, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UNLV -4.5 - Spread
California -1.5 - Moneyline
California -115, UNLV -105 - Over/Under
48.5 points - Game Time
9:00 p.m. ET, Wednesday, Dec. 18 - Location
SoFi Stadium | Inglewood, Calif. - Predicted Weather at Kick
66 degrees, 2 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
ESPN
The Bears ended the season with a 2-4 against-the-spread record in their last six games. Meanwhile, UNLV enters the LA Bowl 10-3 ATS in its past 13 games as an underdog.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
But what about the total? There are two parallel trends to know:
- The under has hit in 10 of Cal’s last 15 games.
- The under has hit in four of UNLV’s last six.
California’s Winning Probability
Year 8 of the Justin Wilcox era was more of the same, with the Bears finishing the regular season at 6-6. However, it was their ACC debut, which earned the program a few more brownie points. But can they win their first bowl game since 2019? The FPM doesn’t like their odds.
- at UNLV: 36.9%
UNLV’s Winning Probability
After the two most successful seasons in school history, head coach Barry Odom has departed for the same role with the Purdue Boilermakers. It also appears as though offensive coordinator Brennan Marion is on his way out, as he was not named the interim HC for the LA Bowl.
Can the Rebels still pull off the “Group of Five over Power Four” victory?
- vs. California: 63.1%
Prediction for California vs. UNLV
The LA Bowl presents a compelling clash between two programs navigating transition. UNLV rides into the postseason after a historic year, narrowly missing the College Football Playoff with a loss in the Mountain West Championship.
However, the Rebels now face significant uncertainty at head coach, with Dan Mullen replacing Odom. Still, the Rebels retain their core talent, including dynamic QB Hajj-Malik Williams, whose dual-threat abilities will test Cal’s defense.
Cal, meanwhile, looks to cap its first season in the ACC with a winning record. The Bears rely on a strong turnover margin and a defense built to grind opponents down, especially on third downs.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Yet, Cal is missing QB Fernando Mendoza, who entered the transfer portal. Additionally, the offense has struggled mightily in pass protection, ranking among the worst nationally in sacks allowed. That could spell trouble against a UNLV defensive front ranked top 20 in sacks.
While the Rebels face coaching uncertainties, their talent edge and high-powered playmakers should give them the upper hand.
- EPA margin: UNLV 43rd; Cal 62nd
- Offensive success rate: UNLV 43rd; Cal 93rd
- Net points per drive: UNLV 33rd; Cal 90th
Prediction: UNLV 27, California 20
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