The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and James Madison Dukes will meet for the first time in the Boca Raton Bowl this year. However, both enter the contest with question marks at quarterback.
Who will come out on top? Our Western Kentucky vs. James Madison prediction breaks down everything you need to know — from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both teams as they battle in the Boca Raton Bowl.
Western Kentucky vs. James MadisonBoca Raton Bowl Betting Preview
All Western Kentucky vs. James Madison odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Western Kentucky -1 - Spread
James Madison -9.5 - Moneyline
James Madison -340, Western Kentucky +270 - Over/Under
52.5 points - Game Time
5:30 ET, Wednesday, Dec. 18 - Location
FAU Stadium | Boca Raton, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
ESPN
The Hilltoppers are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games, and six of their last nine matchups have gone under the total. Not all that appealing.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
However, the Dukes haven’t looked all that much better. They are 2-4 ATS in their previous six matchups, and the under has hit in six of their past eight.
Western Kentucky’s Winning Probability
Tyson Helton has been at Western Kentucky’s helm for the last six seasons. This is his sixth straight bowl game. The Hilltoppers have only lost once in the postseason, and they’ll hope to keep it that way against James Madison.
- at James Madison: 51.2%
James Madison’s Winning Probability
The Marshall Thundering Herd are the 2024 Sun Belt champions, thumping the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 31-3 for the right to the title. The Dukes are likely sick that they didn’t make the championship at 8-4 on the year, as they gave Marshall a run for its money in the regular-season finale (35-33).
Nevertheless, James Madison is still hunting its first bowl win as part of the FBS, and the program could earn in on Dec. 18.
- vs. Western Kentucky: 48.8%
Prediction for Western Kentucky vs. James Madison
Western Kentucky has often finished its seasons on a high note, winning 10 of its last 13 December matchups. Will the bout with James Madison be any different?
With both teams down their starting QBs — Caden Veltkamp in the transfer portal and Alonza Barnett III out with an injury — it’s difficult to project an outcome … but not impossible.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Sophomore Turner Helton — who has completed 11 of 12 passes for 97 yards, one TD, and one INT in his career (all in 2023) — appears to be next up for Western Kentucky. He’ll be the third QB to start for the Hilltoppers after T.J. Finley suffered an injury that thrust Veltkamp into the role.
That’s not great, considering the offense ranks among the top 40 in pass play rate. James Madison, on the other hand, is at 85th, putting much less pressure on backup Dylan Morris — a redshirt senior transfer from the Washington Huskies — to produce.
Making matters worse for Western Kentucky:
- The defense has been a sieve against the run, allowing 221.9 rushing yards per game (fifth most).
- James Madison is 11th in stop rate and allows just 1.57 points per drive, fewer than Penn State, Oregon, SMU, and Clemson.
With a veteran under center, a run-heavy offense against a putrid run defense, and a defense that can pick up a young QB, I’m taking the Dukes to win and cover with ease in the Boca Raton Bowl.
Prediction: James Madison 31, Western Kentucky 17
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