The first-round action of the College Football Playoffs is set to kick off on Dec. 20. One of the most compelling matchups in the opening round features the Tennessee Volunteers taking on the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Will the Volunteers prove they’re ready to take the next step toward long-term success? Can Ryan Day and the Buckeyes bounce back after the sting of a fourth straight loss to the Michigan Wolverines? Here’s our breakdown and prediction for Tennessee vs. Ohio State.
Tennessee vs. Ohio State College Football Playoff First-Round Betting Preview
All Tennessee vs. Ohio State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio State -5 - Spread
Ohio State -7.5 - Moneyline
Ohio State -285, Tennessee +230 - Over/Under
47 points - Game Time
Saturday, Dec. 21, 8 p.m. ET - Location
Ohio Stadium | Columbus, OH - How To Watch
ABC
Though these two teams have been around for over a century, they’ve only ever met once — a New Year’s Day 1996 Citrus Bowl clash. The Volunteers won that one, 20-14, and will look for a similar result on the road this time.
There hasn’t been much early-line movement, with the spread hovering around 7.5 points in favor of the Buckeyes. Vegas expects a low-scoring game between two defenses. This is Tennessee’s first College Football Playoff appearance, compared to Ohio State’s fifth.
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly higher on the Volunteers, making them underdogs of only five points. That translates to a winning probability of 35.4%.
Weather could be an issue for the road Volunteers, led by Southern California-raised quarterback Nico Iamaleava. If the Volunteers pulled off the upset, they’d face the Oregon Ducks on their path to the national championship.
- at Ohio State: 35.4%
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Buckeyes are moderate favorites, with a winning probability of 64.6%. They’ll want to defend their home field and make a deep run into the College Football Playoff. Just like with Tennessee, if the Buckeyes win, they’d face Oregon on their path to the national championship.
- vs. Tenneessee: 57.4%
Prediction for Tennessee vs. Ohio State
The first-round clash between Tennessee and Ohio State has all the makings of the best early College Football Playoff matchup. For me, two key factors will likely decide this game: team identity and the weather.
First, I have serious questions about Ohio State’s offensive approach. Do Chip Kelly and Ryan Day not trust quarterback Will Howard, or are they underestimating the talent of their receivers?
Against Michigan, Howard attempted 33 passes, but only 10 traveled more than 10 air yards. This was despite Ohio State’s elite receiving corps facing a Wolverines secondary riddled with injuries.
Did Kelly and Day overlook this obvious mismatch, or did they think taking shots downfield was too risky? Whatever the reasoning, it didn’t work—they managed just 10 points.
On the defensive side, the Buckeyes struggled to contain Michigan’s straightforward rushing attack. That’s a massive red flag against Tennessee, a team built in a similar mold but with even more talent.
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If you compare the two, Tennessee is essentially a more polished version of Michigan. The Volunteers boast a better offensive line, running back, quarterback, and defensive line while playing the same brand of physical, smashmouth football.
If Ohio State can’t stop the run, the rest of this analysis might not even matter.
That said, I do have concerns about how Tennessee might perform in less-than-ideal weather. Nico Iamaleava hails from Southern California, and while it’s too early to know the forecast, snow isn’t off the table. How will the young SEC quarterback handle the cold?
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Ohio State will be hoping it’s not well. Outside of their experience and an expensive roster, the Buckeyes are up against a Tennessee team that, on paper, looks stronger in almost every phase. The Volunteers are catching plenty of points, too.
I’ve already locked in Tennessee +7.5 and might even take them on the moneyline, though I’m holding off until we get a clearer forecast.
To be clear, Ohio State’s offense can move the ball through the air. But Tennessee’s defensive line has the potential to wreak havoc against the Buckeyes’ reshuffled offensive line. Still, I trust Kelly to draw up plays that create opportunities for elite playmakers like Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka.
If this game stays close, Ohio State’s experience could swing it in their favor. But as far as bets go, I love Tennessee in this spot. The Volunteers should cover in what I expect to be a tight contest that edges over the total.
Prediction: Ohio State 27, Tennessee 23
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