Navy vs. Army Prediction: Bryson Daily, Black Knights Run to Victory, Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy

The last service academy to win back-to-back Commander-in-Chief’s Trophies? The Army Black Knights in 2017-18. This year, they have a chance to repeat history—if they can take down the Navy Midshipmen this week.

Who will come out on top? Our Navy vs. Army preview breaks down everything you need to know, from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both teams in this highly anticipated finale to the 2024 college football regular season.

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Navy vs. Army Betting Preview

All Navy vs. Army odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 14, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

  • CFN FPM Spread
    Army -10.5
  • Spread
    Army -6
  • Moneyline
    Army -258, Navy +210
  • Over/Under
    39.5 points
  • Game Time
    3:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 14
  • Location
    Northwest Stadium | Landover, Md.
  • Predicted Weather at Kick
    39 degrees, 1 mph winds, mostly cloudy
  • How To Watch
    CBS

Navy leads the all-time series 62-55-7, but Army has taken the last two matchups. The total might feel low at 40.5, especially considering both teams are averaging over 32 points per game this season.

That said, the last four Army-Navy games have averaged a combined total of just 27.5. The under has hit in four of Navy’s last five games and four of Army’s last six, reinforcing the trend.

MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

Looking at the spread, Navy holds a 7-3 ATS edge over the last 10 matchups, while Army is 1-4 ATS in its past five.

Still, it’s worth noting Navy’s struggles in this rivalry, going just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings against Army. Don’t let the surface stats be your final stop—this matchup has layers worth digging into.

Navy’s Winning Probability

Navy is having its best season (8-3) since their stellar 2019 campaign (11-2), but it could’ve been even better if star QB Blake Horvath had stayed healthy down the stretch. If Horvath can’t suit up for the rivalry game against Army, Navy’s already slim chances take an even bigger hit.

  • at Army: 21.9%

Army’s Winning Probability

Army has exceeded expectations this year, and its ceiling has been even higher. The Black Knights’ 11-1 record is their best in the modern era and includes an AAC title—achieved in their very first year in the conference.

  • vs. Navy: 78.1%

Prediction for Navy vs. Army

Don’t expect an air show in this one—service academy matchups rarely feature much passing. Army (86.55%, No. 1) and Navy (75.42%, No. 3) rank in the top three nationally for rush rate this season.

This game will be all about run defense, and the stats paint a clear picture: Army seems poised to dominate.

  • Rushing yards allowed per game: Army, 104.0 (11th); Navy, 159.8 (85th)
  • Defensive EPA per rush: Army, 30th; Navy, 82nd

MORE: Simulate the College Football Playoffs With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

Still not convinced? Behind QB Bryson Daily, Army’s offense ranks:

  • No. 4 in offensive success rate
  • No. 11 in EPA per rush
  • No. 3 in net points per drive

All of this may become academic if Horvath can’t go and Navy turns to Braxton Woodson under center. While I expect Horvath to fight through for the season finale, any setback or limited mobility could deal a crushing blow to the Midshipmen’s upset chances.

Prediction: Army 28, Navy 17

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