Texas Playoff Predictions: How Far Do Longhorns Fall Following Loss to Georgia?

The Texas Longhorns gave it all they had in their first season in the SEC. Falling just shy in the SEC Championship Game, Texas will now make the College Football Playoffs as an at-large team.

Following their loss to Georgia, is their final spot in the College Football Playoff Rankings a foregone conclusion?

Predicting Texas’ Placement In College Football Playoff Rankings

The Longhorns battled through it with Georgia two different times this season. Both games felt intransigently different, but the same result came from both: Georgia wins and Texas losses.

Nevertheless, the ‘Horns are an 11-2 team and in the playoffs with an at-large bid. But with two losses to a Georgia team that also has perhaps a ‘non-quality loss’ or two on their own resume, where will the committee rank the Longhorns?

At this time, from where they ranked on the latest rankings, the Longhorns are likely to fall just shy of the top teams in the country and land with the No. 5 seed in the playoff bracket.

Here’s how this might shake out.

1. Oregon (vs. Penn State; Big Ten Championship Game)
2. Texas
3. Penn State (vs. Oregon; Big Ten Championship Game)
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. SMU (vs. Clemson; ACC Championship Game)
9. Indiana
10. Boise State (won Mountain West)
11. Alabama
12. Miami-FL
13. Ole Miss
14. South Carolina
15. Arizona State (won Big 12)
16. Iowa State (lost)
17. Clemson (vs. SMU; ACC Championship Game)

With the winner of the Big Ten Championship Game between Oregon and Penn State likely to earn the No. 1 seed, Georgia is in prime position to land the No. 2 seed as the second-highest-ranked conference champion.

The third and fourth seeds are still to be decided but will fall based on how the committee ranks Boise State after their win over UNLV, Arizona State after their dismantling of Iowa State, and the outcome of the SMU vs. Clemson ACC Championship Game.

For Texas, those don’t quite matter; it’s just about whether or not the committee will rank the Longhorns higher than Notre Dame or not. The Longhorns have two losses compared to ND’s single loss, however, Texas’ two losses are to the SEC Champion Bulldogs whereas the Irish lost to Northern Illinois.

However, the case could be made that ND is the ‘hotter’ team than Texas as they’ve won 10 straight by a combined margin of 451 to 134.

Texas is in, that’s not in question, but what is in question is the difference in their opponent as either the fifth or the sixth seed.

With those rankings above, it would be Arizona State playing the No. 5 seed and Alabama playing the No. 6 seed. Depending on, of course, if the committee doesn’t move Arizona State up past Boise State and if SMU hangs on to win against Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.

The Crimson Tide — as a road team — may be an ‘easier matchup’ for Texas as the sixth seed than a red-hot and incredibly angry No. 12 Arizona State team would be in this scenario.

A lot is left to be decided — and ultimately, the committee will decide — but Texas’ road map to an easier road at advancing in the playoffs may be as the sixth seed.

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