The Ohio State Buckeyes limp into the College Football Playoff following an embarrassing loss to the Michigan Wolverines in the regular-season finale.
For head coach Ryan Day, it’s shaping up to be “national championship or bust,” and conference championship week will determine the Buckeyes’ path to the ultimate prize.
College Football Playoff Predictions: Projecting Ohio State’s Opponents
Below, we’ve listed all the potential outcomes for Ohio State. Given the latest rankings, these are the teams the Buckeyes would play based on the results in the conference championships.
Buckeyes To Play Tennessee in Latest College Football Playoff Rankings
An Ohio State-Tennessee clash seems inevitable, likely in Columbus. Both teams share similar losses, but Ohio State’s résumé edges Tennessee’s, thanks to wins over No. 3 Penn State and No. 9 Indiana, compared to the Volunteers’ top victory against No. 11 Alabama.
Keep a close eye on the SEC Championship Game — if Georgia falls to Texas, it could shake up Tennessee’s ranking and potentially influence the Buckeyes’ opponent.
MORE: 2024 College Football Power Rankings
Assuming Oregon secures a Big Ten title, the Ducks are on track for a first-round bye and a quarterfinal showdown against the Ohio State-Tennessee winner.
Such a scenario offers the Buckeyes a shot at redemption, revisiting their razor-thin one-point loss to Oregon earlier this season in a high-stakes rematch.
What If Boise State Loses the Mountain West or the Big 12 Champion Jumps Up the Rankings?
The Boise State Broncos currently sit in a position to claim a first-round bye, ranked above both Big 12 title contenders, the Iowa State Cyclones and Arizona Wildcats. A Broncos loss wouldn’t shift Ohio State’s seeding but could alter the Buckeyes’ first-round opponent if they climb to the sixth seed.
Should Boise State lose, the Big 12 champion would likely take the fourth seed and a bye, cementing Alabama as the 11th seed and UNLV as the 12th, potentially sending the Crimson Tide to Columbus.
A closer Boise State win could complicate matters further. If the Big 12 champion jumps the Broncos in the rankings, Boise State could slide to a first-round game as the 10th seed, presenting a possible matchup for Ohio State.
For the Big 12 championship to matter to the Buckeyes, Ohio State would need to move into the sixth seed, with Iowa State or Arizona State delivering a decisive enough win to leap Alabama for the 11th seed.
There’s also a slim possibility the winner overtakes Boise State for a first-round bye, pushing the Broncos into Ohio State’s range of potential opponents.
What If Texas Loses/Wins the SEC and Oregon Loses/Wins the Big Ten?
Texas, at 11-1, would stay ahead of Ohio State even with a loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. The Longhorns’ lone defeat came against the Bulldogs earlier this season, while they boast a marquee road win over Michigan. A Saturday loss likely won’t jeopardize their standing, keeping them firmly out of Ohio State’s reach.
Georgia, however, sits more vulnerable at 10-2, with losses to Alabama and Ole Miss. Their double-overtime win over unranked Georgia Tech last weekend further complicates their case. Committee chair Warde Manuel has already noted the slim margin separating Ohio State and Georgia in the rankings.
If the Bulldogs suffer a significant loss to Texas, the Buckeyes could leapfrog into a higher seed. That scenario depends on Texas addressing its offensive struggles from their October matchup, in which Georgia’s defense dominated with seven sacks and a first-half shutout.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Penn State, despite its No. 3 ranking, appears the most likely to drop behind Ohio State with a conference championship loss. The Nittany Lions’ lone top-25 win — a September victory over No. 21 Illinois — pales in comparison to the Buckeyes’ résumé, which features a head-to-head victory and two top-10 wins.
James Franklin’s squad faces an uphill battle against Oregon’s eighth-ranked pass defense and Big Ten-best 39 sacks, especially given their wide receiver struggles. If Penn State can pull off the upset, they’ll erase doubts about Franklin’s ability to win big games.
Yet, a close loss could set up an Ohio State-Oregon CFP quarterfinal rematch if the Buckeyes win their first-round game and the Ducks secure the top seed.
What If Clemson Wins the ACC Championship?
Ohio State’s playoff picture largely hinges on Clemson’s performance in the ACC Championship. An SMU victory would likely lock the Mustangs in as the No. 3 seed, preserving the Buckeyes’ current seeding and first-round matchup.
However, if Clemson pulls off the upset, chaos ensues. The Tigers would steal a playoff spot as a conference champion, igniting a debate between Alabama and SMU for the final at-large berth.
The shakeup intensifies if Boise State falls to UNLV in the Mountain West title game, potentially granting Clemson a top-four seed and a first-round bye.
Should both Clemson and Boise State win, the Tigers could leap into the No. 11 seed and face Ohio State, assuming the Buckeyes move to No. 6. Alternatively, an SMU loss could also see them as Ohio State’s opponent in the opening round.
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