The stage is set. The undefeated No. 1 Oregon Ducks (12-0, 9-0) face the No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1, 8-1) in the 2024 Big Ten Championship Football Game on Saturday, with everything at stake. For Oregon, a victory would not only secure a perfect season but the top overall seed in the College Football Playoff.
Penn State, meanwhile, is poised for its own moment in history. Likely already bound for the playoff, the Nittany Lions can secure a first-round bye with a win and end their conference title drought dating back to 2016. Who will claim the Big Ten Championship?
Big Ten Championship Game Odds: Main Markets
- Spread
Oregon -3.5 - Moneyline
Penn State +150, Oregon -175 - Over/Under
50.5
This will be the first matchup between Penn State and Oregon as members of the Big Ten. Penn State holds a 3-1 edge in its all-time series with Oregon, a rivalry steeped in historic moments. Their last clash came in the 1995 Rose Bowl, where Penn State capped a perfect season behind legends like Kerry Collins and Ki-Jana Carter. The journey began in the 1960 Liberty Bowl in Philadelphia, where Penn State dominated 41-12.
In this matchup, we’ve seen absolutely no movement in the spread, which is not very typical of a game of this magnitude. It is the latest game to kick off on championship Saturday, so perhaps there will be some movement closer to kickoff. The total has seen a bit of movement but still sits on the opening number of 50.5. It has floated between 50.5 and 49.5 and will most likely continue to do so before kickoff on Saturday night.
Big Ten Championship Game Odds: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Jordan James (Oregon): -175
- Nicholas Singleton (Penn State): -140
- Tyler Warren (Penn State): -125
- Tez Johnson (Oregon): +105
- Kaytron Allen (Penn State): +175
- Noah Whittington (Oregon): +210
- Evan Stewart (Oregon): +230
- Dillon Gabriel (Oregon): +230
Oregon running back Jordan James enters the Big Ten Championship Football Game with the highest odds for anytime touchdown scorer props, and rightfully so. James has scored in all but two of Oregon’s games so far in 2024, and he’s reached paydirt five times in the Ducks’ last four outings.
If you’re looking for a value play, look at Penn State tight end Tyler Warren. He’s emerged as Drew Allar’s favorite red-zone target in 2024. Warren has amassed six receiving touchdowns in 2024, but he’s logged double-digit targets in three of his last four outings, all of which he’s had 6+ receptions in.
Warren also has the ability to take over a game. In an October win over USC, Warren had 17 catches, leading to 224 yards receiving and a score.
SEC Championship Game Odds: Quarterback Props
- Drew Allar Passing Yards: 200.5
- Dillon Gabriel Passing Yards: 235.5
- Carson Beck Passing Touchdowns: 1.5
- Quinn Ewers Passing Touchdowns: 1.5
The Big Ten Football Championship Game features two marquee quarterbacks in Penn State’s Drew Allar and Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel.
Allar has been excellent at taking care of the football since a three-interception outing against USC in October. He hasn’t thrown an interception in his last four games and has only thrown one in his previous six games. However, he also hasn’t been racking up the scoring tosses. Allar has only surpassed this passing touchdown total once in his last six games.
Gabriel has been a different story in 2024 regarding passing touchdowns. He has surpassed this total in 10 of the Ducks’ 12 games in 2024. While he has racked up the passing touchdowns, he hasn’t been throwing for as many yards as of late. He surpassed this passing yards total in his first nine games of 2024 but hasn’t surpassed it in his last three games.
Big Ten Championship Game Odds: Receiving Props
- Evan Stewart (Oregon): 35.5 (-115)
- Jordan James (Oregon): 16.5 (-125)
- Nicholas Singleton (Penn State): 27.5 (-115)
- Terrance Ferguson (Oregon): 40.5 (-115)
- Tez Johnson (Oregon): 70.5 (-110)
- Traeshon Holden (Oregon): 33.5 (-120)
- Tyler Warren (Penn State): 69.5 (-115)
Tez Johnson enters the 2024 Big Ten Championship Football Game as the Oregon Ducks’ leading receiver, leading them in catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns. Johnson had a five-game stretch this season where he had at least 7+ catches, but he has gone over this receiving yardage total just once in his last four games. However, Johnson has surpassed this total in Oregon’s two games against ranked opponents in 2024.
Warren has done it all in the passing game on the Nittany Lions side. He has 26 more catches than anyone else on the roster and also leads the Nittany Lions in receiving yards and touchdown catches. If Penn State is going to utilize the passing game to open up the run game, it starts with Warren.
Big Ten Championship Game Odds: Rushing Props
- Jordan James (Oregon): 100.5 (-115)
- Kaytron Allen (Penn State): 40.5 (+105)
- Nicholas Singleton (Penn State): 70.5 (+110)
- Noah Whittington (Oregon): 23.5 (-110)
In 2024, the only thing that has stopped James in the running game has been Oregon blowing its opponents out and James not being on the field. He’s rushed for 95+ yards in eight of the Duck’s 12 games in 2024.
Penn State has a legit dual-threat backfield in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, but Singleton has a significantly better YPC with 6.1 compared to Allen’s 4.4. Despite this, Allen has 38 more carries than Singleton. If Penn State wants to stay in this one, they’ll need to get the running game going, so they may just go with whoever appears to be the hot hand.
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