A win in the ACC Championship Game sends the 11-1 SMU Mustangs to the College Football Playoff, but a tight loss would likely also book their ticket. So, who could the Mustangs face in our playoff predictions?
College Football Playoff Predictions: Projecting SMU’s Opponents
Below, we’ve listed all the potential outcomes for SMU. Given the latest rankings, these are the teams the Mustangs would play based on the results in the other conference championships.
Mustangs To Play Alabama-Notre Dame Winner in Latest College Football Playoff Rankings
Currently, the Mustangs’ likeliest opponent is the winner between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Fighting Irish in the first round.
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They checked in at No. 8 in the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings, but a win in the ACC title would cement their place as the No. 3 seed (above the Boise State Broncos, who would receive the No. 4 seed with a Mountain West Championship win) due to the top four conference champions receiving first-round byes.
That would see SMU face the No. 11 vs. No. 6 winner in the bracket, which is currently projected to be Alabama vs. Notre Dame.
What If Texas Loses the SEC and Penn State Loses the Big Ten?
If both the Texas Longhorns and Penn State Nittany Lions lose their respective conference championships, SMU’s potential opponent would likely change. That’s because Texas would almost certainly drop from the No. 2 seed to at least the No. 5, and Penn State would drop from No. 5 to possibly No. 6 or 7.
Now, it’s important to note the College Football Playoff Selection Committee has routinely said they won’t punish teams for losing in the conference championship, so unless a team loses by a massive margin, the only rankings that would fluctuate all that much are those jumping into the top four seeds and those dropping out.
In this case, SMU would face either Penn State or Notre Dame in the first round.
What If Texas Loses/Wins the SEC and Oregon Loses the Big Ten?
Now this would be spicy. What if Penn State does the unthinkable and upsets the Oregon Ducks in the Big Ten Championship Game?
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Assuming Texas wins, Oregon and Penn State would swap seeds, leaving SMU with the first option: Alabama vs. Notre Dame.
However, if both Texas and Oregon lose, SMU could draw Texas in the second round, as the Longhorns would be the No. 6 seed and face Alabama for the right to move on.
What If SMU Loses the ACC?
This is where the real meat lies.
If the Mustangs fall to the Clemson Tigers in the ACC title match, the rankings would receive a bit of a facelift. First, the Tigers would secure the No. 12 seed based on being a conference champion. Then, the winner of the Big 12 (Iowa State vs. Arizona State) would go from the No. 12 seed to the No. 4 due to being one of the four highest-ranked league winners.
An SMU loss would also push the Boise State Broncos to its vacated No. 3 spot. If the Mustangs suffer a blowout loss, they could fall out of the rankings entirely, which is a very low possibility.
So, let’s call it a 1-2 score defeat. SMU could drop a spot or two in the rankings, but even if the program remains at No. 8, the potential opponents vary widely.
A fall to No. 8 would pit Rhett Lashlee and Co. against the No. 9-seeded Tennessee Vols (vice versa if they fall to No. 9). A two-spot drop would see the Mustangs take on the Georgia Bulldogs in Round 1, assuming they lose to Texas in the SEC title match.
Whether SMU triumphs in the ACC Championship or stumbles, their path to the College Football Playoff will provide plenty of intrigue. For the Mustangs, it all comes down to execution — and the chaos of championship weekend.
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