Week 14 didn’t quite reach the craziness we saw in Week 13 in terms of the sheer number of upsets, but we did get some wildly entertaining games, and the College Football Playoff Selection Committee has its work cut out for it.
Anyone who thought the expansion of the playoff wouldn’t lead to more debate thought wrong, and there are a few intriguing head-to-heads that the selection committee will have to settle.
How will it all shake out in Week 14? Remember, our College Football Playoff rankings projections are what we think the selection committee will do, not necessarily how we’d rank the teams.
College Football Playoff Rankings Projections | Full Top 25
25) Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (NR)
24) Army Black Knights (NR)
23) Colorado Buffaloes (+2)
22) Illinois Fighting Illini (+1)
21) Syracuse Orange (NR)
20) UNLV Rebels (+2)
19) Missouri Tigers (+2)
18) BYU Cougars (+1)
17) Clemson Tigers (-5)
16) Iowa State Cyclones (+2)
At this point, the back end of the rankings serves only to boost Group of Five conference championship ratings and help the committee make the justifications it wants to make for the teams they have ranked near the top.
For example, Missouri at 19 helps Alabama and South Carolina, while ranking Army and Louisiana ensure that the AAC and Sun Belt championships, respectively, have a ranked team in them.
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Iowa State, Clemson, and UNLV all control their own destinies. They all have the chance to win their conference and earn an automatic bid. How those rankings shake out will be fascinating though, as there’s a path for the Mountain West, ACC, or Big 12 champion to be the one that doesn’t get a bye and ends up as the 12 seed.
15) Arizona State Sun Devils (+1)
14) Ole Miss Rebels (-)
13) Miami Hurricanes (-7)
12) South Carolina Gamecocks (+3)
11) Alabama Crimson Tide (+2)
This is where the controversy starts. To be clear, this is not how I would order these teams, as I think South Carolina should be the final at-large bid. However, this is what I think the selection committee will ultimately do.
The committee has punished teams that have been either propped up by easy schedules or have flirted with disaster. BYU fell eight spots after the Cougars finally lost. Indiana fell from fifth to 10th after losing to a top-two team, given the nature of the schedule before that game.
Miami has both of those going against it. The Hurricanes don’t have a top-25 win and have flirted with disaster. Syracuse isn’t even a bad loss, but given that the Hurricanes have three extremely close wins against unranked teams, I think the committee drops them. They’ll likely be in front of Ole Miss but behind the other two 9-3 SEC teams.
The big philosophical question is, “When should head-to-head come into play?”
The selection committee picks and chooses its spots to take head-to-head into consideration. Just last week, the Gamecocks were behind both Ole Miss and Alabama, teams they lost to in the first part of the season.
But Ole Miss struggled against 2-10 Mississippi State, and the Gamecocks beat a top-15 Clemson team on the road. Compounded with the Rebels’ atrocious loss to the Kentucky Wildcats and slightly-less-awful-but-still-bad loss to the Florida Gators, Ole Miss seems out of the running.
So, it comes down to South Carolina or Alabama. South Carolina is working from behind, as the Gamecocks lost when now-superstar LaNorris Sellers threw an interception on a potential game-winning drive in Tuscaloosa in Week 7.
So, Alabama has the head-to-head. Will the committee go that way or consider the Crimson Tide’s multiple losses to .500 teams — teams that South Carolina beat by a combined score of 63-16?
I’d personally have South Carolina, the hottest team in college football, as the final at-large team, but Vegas seems to think Alabama is the pick.
10) Boise State Broncos (+1)
9) Indiana Hoosiers (+1)
8) Ohio State Buckeyes (-6)
7) SMU Mustangs (+2)
6) Tennessee Volunteers (+2)
5) Georgia Bulldogs (+2)
4) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+1)
3) Penn State Nittany Lions (+1)
2) Texas Longhorns (+1)
1) Oregon Ducks (-)
I’m interested to see where some of these teams fall. The committee has been hesitant to shuffle teams around without huge wins or losses.
The committee didn’t let Notre Dame jump Penn State last week after the Nittany Lions were saved only by P.J. Fleck’s awful decision to kick a field goal while down four points, so I don’t think the committee will move Tennessee in front of Georgia.
Ohio State will fall, but given the outcome of their Week 13 game, I still believe the selection committee will keep the Buckeyes ahead of Indiana.
I haven’t allowed myself to consider potential matchups and home games until now since I believe the selection committee will set this up to make compelling matchups for the first round after conference championships.
College Football Playoff Rankings Projections | First Round
- No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils vs. No. 5 Penn State Nittany Lions
- No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs
- No. 9 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers
It’s time to start considering what the playoff selection committee could do with the teams in this range between now and Sunday.
For example, if Georgia loses, would the selection committee drop the Bulldogs a spot or two to set up a Georgia vs. Ohio State matchup? If Penn State loses, would the selection committee switch the Nittany Lions and Notre Dame? How would an upset on Conference Championship Weekend shake up the rankings?
All of these questions are things the committee needs to consider when creating their penultimate rankings.
College Football Rankings Projections | 1-4 Seeds
1) Oregon Ducks
The Ducks took care of business against the Washington Huskies, but their road to the top seed isn’t quite finished. They’ll need to beat Penn State in Indianapolis or risk having to turn around and play a home first-round matchup the following week.
If Penn State wins, the Nittany Lions would jump the SEC champion into the top seed.
2) Texas Longhorns
The SEC champion is likely locked into the No. 2 seed, as I believe the Big Ten winner will take the top seed, no matter the outcome of that game.
Here, Texas is ahead, but as a reminder, the Longhorns lost to Georgia in Austin earlier this season and are currently favorites by only 2.5 points, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
3) SMU Mustangs
Prepare yourself for a wild Conference Championship Weekend. There are three conferences vying for the third and fourth seeds, and the champions of the Mountain West, ACC, and Big 12 could land in any combination of the third, fourth, 11th, or 12th seeds.
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With a win Saturday, SMU would be the No. 3 seed. However, the Mustangs are only 2.5-point favorites. If Clemson wins, the Tigers could sneak into this third seed or be forced to play a first-round road game, depending on the outcomes of the other championship games.
4) Boise State Broncos
If the Broncos win Friday, they are safely in the top four and could jump to third if SMU loses. However, if UNLV wins (which is a real possibility), the Rebels would likely end up as a 12 seed unless the selection committee shakes up the rankings and makes Army the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion.
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