The Georgia Bulldogs and Texas Longhorns already played out one frenetic, controversy-laden contest this season. Now, they meet in the SEC Championship Game with more than just the conference title at stake.
Who will come out on top and who books an auotmatic bid to the College Football Playoff? Our SEC Championship Game prediction examines the latest odds, win probabilities, and forecasts the winner of Georgia vs. Texas.
SEC Championship Game Betting Preview
All SEC Championship Game odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Dec. 3, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -2 - Spread
Texas -2.5 - Moneyline
Texas -135, Georgia +114 - Over/Under
49 points - Game time
4 p.m. ET - Location
Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Atlanta, GA - Predicted Weather at Kick
50 degrees, partly sunny, 5 mph winds - How to Watch
ABC
Georgia and Texas met just five times before the 2024 season, and now, they’ll have met as many times in one year as they had in the previous 30. The Bulldogs cruised past the Longhorns in Austin in mid-October to reduce the series deficit, but Steve Sarkisian’s team is favored once again as the SEC’s newest rivalry heads to Atlanta for the conference championship game.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Georgia has been an underdog just once this season, and we all know exactly how that game turned out. Meanwhile, the Longhorns are 11-1 as a favorite, with a 7-5 record against the spread in that situation. That might not sound like the best (and it isn’t), but the Bulldogs are 3-9 ATS in 2024. If good teams win but great teams cover, we know exactly how to judge Georgia.
Georgia’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Georgia has a 46.6% chance of beating Texas in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday afternoon. The good news for Bulldogs’ fans is that our metric projected that Georgia would lose to the Longhorns in their regular season matchup.
- vs. Texas: 46.6%
Texas’ Winning Probability
Conversely, Texas has a 53.4% chance of beating the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday afternoon. Our metric has projected wins for the Longhorns in every game this year, proving accurate in all except the regular season loss to Georgia.
- vs. Georgia: 53.4%
Prediction for the SEC Championship Game
The stakes are ludicrously high as Georgia and Texas head to Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the 2024 SEC Championship Game. The winner is guaranteed a berth in the College Football Playoff, and the loser (depending on who it is and how the committee views title game losers) might have an anxious wait until Selection Sunday to find out if they make the expanded format.
Can Texas win the SEC title at the first time of asking after putting together an 11-1 season? Can the Bulldogs shake off their overtime slugfest in Clean, Old Fashioned Hate to defeat the Longhorns and reassert their conference dominance? Who has the edge? Where will this game be won, and who will carve their name into history as the first winner of the non-division era?
After beating Texas earlier in the season, Georgia enters the game as an underdog once more, a situation that has proved a motivating factor for the Bulldogs under Kirby Smart. They thrive on the theory of being overlooked by the national media, especially when it comes to big games. They don’t come much bigger for the 2024 Bulldogs than the SEC Championship Game.
That first encounter gave Smart and his team the blueprint for beating the Longhorns on Saturday afternoon. Creative defensive pressures destroyed the Longhorns’ offense, sewing the seed of doubt in the minds of Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning and leading to multiple turnovers. The ground game led by Trevor Etienne took full advantage, effectively settling the game by the half.
Some offensive concerns still linger for the Longhorns, with quarterback Ewers’ health (and development) a key question mark ahead of the SEC Championship Game. However, since the first edition of this Georgia vs. Texas matchup, Sarkisian’s team has been able to lean into a ground game that was non-existent against the Bulldogs back in mid-October.
Second-year back Quintrevion Wisner has stepped up for an injury-decimated room, entering the game off the back of two 100+ yard games. Meanwhile, the talents of Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden, Ryan Wingo, and Jaydon Blue have allowed Sarkisian to get creative with the Longhorns offense.
Yet, success for Texas in the SEC Championship Game will likely come off the back of one of the nation’s top defensive units. The Longhorns have allowed just 11.7 points and 14 total touchdowns this season. No team in the country has given up fewer passing yards, and they’ve ceded just four rushing touchdowns since allowing three rushing scores against Georgia.
Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba are tied for the SEC lead with four interceptions and were formidable in the first Georgia vs. Texas encounter. Meanwhile, defensive end Colin Simmons and linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. have developed into one of the most deadly pass-rushing, run-defending duos in all of college football.
Highlighting just those four players doesn’t really do justice to a unit that is comfortably one of the most intimidating defenses in the sport. We’re used to Georgia dominating on that side of the ball, and they certainly showcased that they’re capable of giving teams difficulties against Texas the first time around. Still, it feels like the Longhorns have a significant advantage here.
Which could spell disaster for Carson Beck. The highly-regarded quarterback was shell-shocked by the Texas defense in October, throwing three interceptions and averaging just 4.3 yards per attempt. The Bulldogs’ ground game and defense bailed him out, but his aversion to pressure (both mental and physical) could lead Texas to success in the SEC Championship Game.
Prediction: Georgia 21, Texas 27
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