On December 7, under the lights of Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, the No. 2 Texas Longhorns and the No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs will meet again, this time with the SEC championship on the line. Georgia handed Texas its lone loss of the season back in October, a 30-15 defeat in Austin.
Since then, the Longhorns have surged, delivering dominant performances that solidified their place among college football’s elite. For Georgia, this marks yet another chance to reclaim SEC glory. However, the Bulldogs are 1-2 in their last three SEC title game appearances. Our Georgia vs. Texas prediction examines the chances of them bettering that record in an epic rematch.
Georgia vs. Texas Betting Preview
All Georgia vs. Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Dec. 2, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -2 - Spread
Texas -2.5 - Moneyline
Georgia +125, Texas -130 - Over/Under
49 points - Game Time
4:00 p.m. ET - Location
Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Atlanta, GA - Predicted Weather at Kick
Dome - How To Watch
ABC
This line initially opened with the Longhorns favored by -1.5, but as early money poured in on the favorites, that number quickly rose to -2.5. With the SEC Championship Game being one of the most watched college football games every season, there is sure to be more action pouring in on this, which will likely continue to move the spread.
MORE: 2024 College Football Power Rankings
The total has been a bit more steady since the opening. It opened at 49, briefly ticked to 49.5, and then settled back to 49. With this game being a rematch and one of the season’s most anticipated games, the total is expected to be very sharp, and we most likely won’t see much movement before kickoff.
Georgia’s Win Probability
Despite beating the Longhorns when the teams met in the 2024 college football regular season, Georgia enters the SEC Championship Game with a 46.6% chance of emerging victorious, according to the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter.
- vs. Texas: 46.6%
Texas’ Win Probability
Conversely, our metric gives Texas a 53.4% chance of winning the SEC title in their inaugural season in the conference. With no home-field advantage factored into the neutral site game, the Longhorns are favored based on the matchup alone.
- vs. Georgia: 53.4%
Prediction for Georgia vs. Texas
In their October 19 showdown, Georgia overwhelmed Texas 30-15 at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. A commanding 23-0 halftime lead, fueled by a stifling defense that held Texas to just 39 first-half yards, left the Longhorns searching for answers. Arch Manning briefly replaced Quinn Ewers under center, but Georgia’s dominance was undeniable.
Fast forward, and the stakes are higher. Texas has found its groove, motivated by redemption and a potential No. 1 College Football Playoff seed if Oregon stumbles in the Big Ten Championship Game.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
A win solidifies at least the No. 2 seed. Meanwhile, Georgia, hungry to avoid a third SEC title game loss in four years, faces mounting questions about its ability to reclaim its edge on the big stage.
Carson Beck has been lights-out recently, with 11 touchdowns to one interception over his last four games, but the Bulldogs’ rushing attack could be compromised if Trevor Etienne remains sidelined. Texas, led by a surging defense anchored by Anthony Hill Jr., has allowed just 2.1 yards per carry in its last three games.
On the flip side, Quintrevion Wisner, emerging as the Longhorns’ lead back, looks poised to test Georgia’s defensive front after back-to-back performances topping 150 yards.
The quarterback battle looms large. Ewers, who struggled in the first meeting, must take more downfield chances. Georgia’s Jalon Walker, who notched three sacks in the October clash, could disrupt Texas’ rhythm again if the offensive line falters.
Under the bright lights of Atlanta, it’s a test of resolve. Will Texas’ growth since October propel them past Georgia, or will Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs, desperate for a signature win, rise again? It feels like the popular pick is Texas. But I believe Smart will have the Dawgs ready with a CFP berth on the line.
Prediction: Georgia 27, Texas 24
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