It’s not often that two teams play on a given Saturday, then immediately turn around and play each other again the next week, but that’s the case when the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers face the Jacksonville State Gamecocks in the Conference USA Championship Game.
The stakes are higher this week, and College Football Network has you covered with a full betting preview. Find out our thoughts on the spread and total in this Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State prediction.
Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State Betting Preview
All Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Dec. 1, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pick ’em - Spread
Jacksonville State -4 - Moneyline
Jacksonville State -192, Western Kentucky +160 - Over/Under
59 points - Game Time
Friday, Dec. 6, 7 p.m. ET - Location
AmFirst Stadium | Jacksonville, AL - Predicted Weather at Kick
35 degrees, clear, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS Sports Network
The Conference USA title race delivered last week, as Western Kentucky didn’t know if it was still alive until about 20 hours before kickoff. The Hilltoppers then needed a last-second field goal against Jacksonville State just to make the championship game. Now, they can win again and take home the title.
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Jacksonville State is now a four-point favorite, and it’s moving rapidly. The Gamecocks started as 1.5-point favorites, but bettors think it’s difficult to beat a team twice, and that’s reflected in the line movement. As it stands, the spread and total imply a final score close to 31-27 in favor of the Gamecocks.
Western Kentucky’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly higher on the Hilltoppers, giving them a winning probability of 49.6%. A win on Friday would give the Hilltoppers a Conference USA title win after things looked bleak just a few weeks ago.
- at Jacksonville State: 49.6%
Jacksonville State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Gamecocks are slight favorites, with a winning probability of 50.4%. They’ll want to defend their home field, and a win would give the Gamecocks their first conference championship and a second-straight nine-win season after moving up to the FBS level just last year.
- vs. Western Kentucky: 50.4%
Prediction for Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State
It’s hard to beat a team twice in the same season, especially in back-to-back weeks. But that will be the task for Tyson Helton and the Hilltoppers.
It’ll be a clash of styles in Jacksonville between Western Kentucky’s spread passing offense and Jacksonville State’s hurry-up, no-huddle run-heavy spread.
Jacksonville State struggled in the non-conference to start the season, but once the Gamecocks hit their stride, they were unblemished until last week.
I’m not suggesting that the Gamecocks didn’t give their all last week, but the stakes are higher this week. Jacksonville State had already secured its spot in the conference title game, while Western Kentucky was fighting for its season on its home field.
This week, the Gamecocks are at home, but there’s one giant question mark.
Quarterback Tyler Huff left the game Saturday with an apparent leg injury in the third quarter. He went into the medical tent and emerged, helmet in hand, to watch the rest of the game from the sidelines.
Logan Smothers replaced him and played the rest of the game. So, was Huff too hurt to return, or did Rodriguez hold Huff out as a precaution since the Gamecocks had already clinched a championship game berth?
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If Huff is healthy, I like the Gamecocks in a rematch.
Either way, I’m fascinated by the potential adjustments these coaching staffs make before the teams’ second meeting.
What does Rodriguez do to spring Tre Stewart after the Hilltoppers became just the fourth team to hold him under five yards a carry all season? How does Helton get enough out of the running game to provide a semblance of balance?
If Huff plays, I expect him to succeed more as a passer. He’s struggled with accuracy at times this year, but nothing like what we saw in the first two and a-half quarters against the Hilltoppers. If he goes, I think that’s something that gets cleaned up.
More than that, with the knowledge of Huff’s game just last week, I think the coaching staff schemes up some easier throws to guys like Cam Vaughn and Sean Brown, who were non-factors in the loss.
Both offenses struggled last week in a way few expect them to struggle this week. The Vegas total implies a much higher-scoring game on Saturday, but if Huff is healthy, I trust Jacksonville State’s offense to bounce back a bit easier than Western Kentucky’s.
I’m a stats guy, but that’s admittedly a feeling. It felt like the Gamecocks’ offensive woes were more correctable than the Hilltoppers’, and that’s where I’m landing in this Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State prediction.
That said, I’m terrified of this line movement, especially with a question at quarterback. I’m taking the Gamecocks in a shootout, but if Huff is hurt, I don’t feel great about that pick.
Prediction: Jacksonville State 34, Western Kentucky 27
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