Two of the best teams in the country square off in Lucas Oil Stadium as the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Oregon Ducks face off in the Big Ten Championship Game. The two storied schools go head to head to be named conference champions and for a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
Our Penn State vs. Oregon prediction has the latest line, odds, and picks for Saturday evening’s monumental matchup.
Penn State vs. Oregon Preview
All Penn State vs. Oregon odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Sunday, Dec. 1, 2024.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -5 - Spread
Oregon -3.5 - Moneyline
Penn State +142, Oregon -170 - Over/Under
50.5 - Game time
Saturday, Dec. 7 | 8 p.m. ET - Location
Lucas Oil Stadium | Indianapolis, IN - Predicted Weather at Kick
30 degrees, partly cloudy, 7 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS
The Big Ten title game will be the first time the two sides have met since the 1995 Rose Bowl. Penn State won 38-20 in Pasadena and leads the all-time series 3-1 over Oregon.
Both teams enter the Big Ten Championship game as two of the best in the nation, with the Duck going undefeated in the regular season at 12-0 and the Nittany Lions ending 11-1, with their sole loss against the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Oregon heads to Indianapolis as the outright favorite. The Ducks are -170 on the moneyline and are 3.5-point favorites against the spread with the bookmakers. The College Football Playoff Meter makes Dan Lanning’s side even stronger favorites, with the metric favoring the Eugene program by five points.
Those odds are unsurprising, given Oregon is the only undefeated team in the country and currently sits at the top of the College Football Playoff rankings. The Ducks head to the title game looking to win their first Big Ten championship after winning 13 in the Pac-12 while also sowing up the No. 1 seed.
Penn State’s Winning Probability
Penn State is looking to win its fifth Big Ten Championship on Saturday night, its second under James Franklin. However, the CFN FPM makes the Nittany Lions underdogs with a 35.9% chance of winning a championship for the first time since 2016.
- at Oregon: 35.9%
Oregon’s Winning Probability
Oregon has the strongest chance of winning its conference title compared to any other team competing for a championship this weekend. The CFN FPM gives the Ducks a healthy 64.1% chance to win the Big Ten in their maiden season.
- vs. Penn State: 64.1%
Prediction for Penn State vs. Oregon
Simply, can Franklin win a big game? Since becoming head coach at University Park, the Penn State head coach is 1-11 against opponents that have ranked in the top five.
If Franklin is to overcome the historical stats, he’ll have to rely on one of the top connections in college football: Drew Allar and Tyler Warren. The elite tight end has 1,167 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns and is dangerous on every down.
Meanwhile, the Penn State QB will need to be at his best if the Nittany Lions are to overcome a stout Tosh Lupoi-coached defense that ranks ninth in the nation in average points allowed per game (16.4) but just 1.2 turnovers per game.
Allar has taken care of the ball well in 2024, passing for 2,668 yards, 18 touchdowns, and only five interceptions.
Meanwhile, the Ducks have shown some vulnerabilities in the ground game. Oregon has allowed an average of 118.2 rushing yards per game (23rd in the country), including allowing Ashton Jeanty to rush for 192 yards and three touchdowns.
The Penn State RB duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen can’t be compared to the best rusher in the country, but they can cause problems. Singleton has 733 yards and seven touchdowns, while Allen has 698 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
On the opposing side, Oregon’s offense has been one of the most lethal in college football. The experienced Dillon Gabriel leads the conference in completion percentage and passing yards, throwing for 3,275 yards, 24 touchdowns, and six interceptions.
Gabriel’s receiving corps of Tez Johnson, Evan Stewart, Traeshon Holden, and Evan Ferguson are some of the most threatening weapons in the nation. Add in running back Jordan James, who has 1,166 yards and 13 touchdowns rushing this season, and you have one of the most formidable offenses in football.
Penn State’s defense limits teams to 14 points per game, but it will need to play better than they have all season to slow down this rampant Oregon offense.
Prediction: Oregon 27, Penn State 17
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