The Tennessee Volunteers enter Week 14 with high hopes and aspirations of landing in the College Football Playoffs. After entering the week ranked No. 8 in the most recent college football playoff rankings, their dreams are a game away from being fulfilled.
Still, the Vols have to defeat Vanderbilt in order to punch their ticket to the College Football Playoffs.
Tennessee Playoff Odds
According to the College Football Playoff Meter power by our Playoff Predictor, the Rebels have just a 62.17% chance to make the playoffs. That comes after the latest College Football Playoff Rankings saw the Vols land at No. 8.
Though it’s a 12-team playoff, it should be noted that the rankings do not account for the best 12 teams that make the playoffs, but one of the teams ranked lower than Tennessee will make the playoffs due to winning the playoffs. To feel safe for an at-large playoff spot, teams are likely going to have to be ranked at No. 11 or higher because one of the Big 12 teams will make the playoffs, but likely end up ranked in the mid-teens.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
That just means, in order to feel safe for the playoffs, Tennessee would need to continue to rank in the top 10 by simply beating Vanderbilt in Week 14.
If they were to lose to Vandy, however, could they still make the playoffs?
Can Tennessee Lose to Vanderbilt and Still Make the Playoffs?
Right around Tennessee are the following teams:
- No. 15 — South Carolina
- No. 14 — Ole Miss
- No. 13 — Alabama
- No. 12 — Clemson
- No. 11 — Boise State
- No. 10 — Indiana
- No. 9 — SMU
- No. 8 — Tennessee
- No. 7 — Georgia
- No. 6 — Miami
- No. 5 — Notre Dame
You can pencil in one of South Carolina and Clemson dropping out of this picture as the two play each other. So that’s one spot that the Vols would have to be able to fall to.
SMU and Miami are the most likely components in the ACC Championship Game, and it would be something for the committee to rank a Tennessee (fresh off a loss to Vanderbilt in this scenario) above a team that lost to a top-10 opponent. Indiana plays Purdue, so that’s an unlikely loss.
You can hope for the craziest of scenarios to take place — and that’s Miami losing to Syracuse in Week 14. With a Clemson win, that would put the Tigers into the ACC Championship Game against SMU, knocking out South Carolina in the process, and then a Clemson loss to SMU would knock out the Tigers.
Georgia and Boise State play in their conference titles games, but it’s a foregone conclusion that Boise State (or the next-highest-ranked Group of Five team) will be in as well as the Bulldogs, no matter their result in the SEC Championship.
So, realistically, the Vols are having to hope that Auburn beats Alabama, USC beats Notre Dame, and the committee would value their win over Alabama as a potential ‘quality’ win to give them an at-large spot.
It becomes incredibly unlikely for Tennessee to have all these results fall their way, if they were to lose to Vanderbilt.
Buf, if the Vols just handle their business and beat Vanderbilt, then they’re tickets are punched. They’d be in the playoffs.
Lose to Vandy, and you’re hoping for absolutely chaos from the remaining contenders. And that’s not even considering the fact that Ole Miss — at No. 14 — likely takes the spot of Tennessee in this scenario.
Again, the best bet is to beat Vandy. But if the Vols lose, fans will need the following chaotic results:
- Alabama loss
- Notre Dame loss
- Miami loss
- Clemson win; then loss in ACC Championship
That would knock out four teams and leave a bit more room for the Vols in case of a slip-up against Vanderbilt. But again, just beat the ‘Dores.
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