After the Colorado State Rams defeated the Utah State Aggies in Week 14, the UNLV Rebels’ path toward the Mountain West Championship Game is clear. What needs to happen for the Rebels to square up against the Boise State Broncos in the title match for the second straight year?
UNLV’s Mountain West Championship Chances
Entering Week 14, the Rebels had a 23.78% chance of winning the Mountain West. Had the Rams lost, the odds would’ve jumped to 36.65%, but alas, they remain the same.
As long as UNLV handles business against the 3-9 Nevada Wolf Pack in the Battle for the Freemont Cannon, as the College Football Network Predictor expects (93.1%), the Rebels will earn a rematch with the Boise State in the conference title match.
The Rebels host the Wolf Pack at 8:00 p.m. ET on Saturday night, with the Allegiant Stadium crowd cheering for their second straight championship berth — and a shot at their first-ever win.
How Can UNLV Make the Mountain West Championship Game?
Simple: win, and the Rebels are in.
The tiebreakers for the Mountain West begin with head-to-head results, but the Rebels and Rams didn’t face off in 2024.
Thus, the tiebreaker would move to “higher ranking in the College Football Playoffs.” Currently, UNLV is ranked No. 22, and CSU is on the outside looking in.
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With a win over Nevada, the worst thing that could happen is the Rebels remain at No. 22, maintaining the tiebreaker over the Rams.
Next up: composite computer ranking, which would still likely put UNLV in the title game. And even if that somehow comes out a tie, the Rebels would win by virtue of owning the better overall record (10-2/9-3 to the Rams’ 8-4).
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