The Jacksonville State Gamecocks are traveling to Bowling Green, Ky., to face the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in the regular season finale. The Gamecocks have already secured hosting rights to the Conference USA Football Championship Game. However, their opponents still have an uncertain path, as the Hilltoppers need to win to have any chance of securing a place in the title game.
With it all on the line for our Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky prediction, we have the latest odds, lines, and picks for the CUSA matchup.
Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky Betting Preview
All Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 29, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Western Kentucky -1 - Spread
Jacksonville State -1 - Moneyline
Jacksonville State -112, Western Kentucky -108 - Over/Under
62.5 - Game Time
4:00 p.m. ET - Location
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium | Bowling Green, Ky. - Predicted Weather at Kick
37 degrees, showers, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPNU
The Gamecocks and the Hilltoppers are neck and neck in the betting race, with oddsmakers making Jacksonville State slender favorites. Rich Rodriguez’s team is -1 with the bookmakers and is looking to win 9+ games for a second season in the CUSA. However, the CFN FPM leans the other way. Just slightly. Our metric makes Western Kentucky marginal favorites, preferring Tyson Helton’s side.
Western Kentucky has already secured bowl eligibility for the sixth successive year, retaining Helton’s record of reaching a bowl game each year he has been in Bowling Green.
However, this game’s undercurrent is the CUSA championship game ramifications. The Gamecocks have already secured their spot and home-field advantage. However, if the Hilltoppers prevail and the Liberty Flames were to lose to the Sam Houston Bearkats, Western Kentucky would be into the title game on Friday, Dec. 6.
Jacksonville State’s Winning Probability
The Gamecocks already know they will host the 2024 Conference USA Football Championship Game after winning eight straight games. However, their final regular season matchup is too close to call. The CFN FPM gives them a 48.8% chance of defeating the Hilltoppers.
at Western Kentucky: 48.8%
Western Kentucky’s Winning Probability
The CFN FPM gives Western Kentucky the edge in this game, likely because they are the home team. In a coin flip-type game, the Hilltoppers have a 51.2% chance of victory over the Gamecocks.
vs. Jacksonville State: 51.2%
Prediction for Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky holds a 4-2 all-time record over Jacksonville State. However, the Gamecocks won their most recent meeting in 2023, 20-17. Historically, this pair plays close games, with only one blowout win for the Hilltoppers in 2023.
And history is expected to continue. This game really could be as tight as predicted. Jacksonville State enters the game as the form team, winning its last eight games after losing its first three matchups. Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers are on a two-game losing streak, but they know they need to win to extend their season.
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The Gamecocks have been an ultra-efficient rushing team in 2024, running the ball on 65.9% of its offensive plays and ranking third in the country with 260 rushing yards per game. Tre Stewart leads the conference with 1,318 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns. Conversely, the WKU defense has struggled to defend the run, allowing an average of 208 rushing yards per game.
What may save the Hilltoppers is their passing attack. Caden Veltkamp has thrown for 2,364 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in 2024, and if he can limit the turnovers, the WKU offense can create explosive plays for its receiving playmakers in Kisean Johnson, Easton Messer, Dalvin Smith, and K.D. Hutchinson.
However, the offense hasn’t been up to standard in the last two games, and offensive coordinator Will Friend must dial up something special on Saturday afternoon.
This may give Western Kentucky the edge in this game. Jacksonville State has nothing to play for in this game, and with a chance of a rematch in the CUSA championship game, the coaching team may not want to show their hand.
On the other side, the Hilltoppers know they have to throw everything at the Gamecocks to stay alive for a potential place in the title game, and playing at home may just swing this game in their favor.
Prediction: Western Kentucky 35, Jacksonville State 33
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