The UNLV Rebels head into the 2024 Battle for Nevada with their fate in their own hands. But the Nevada Wolf Pack are out to spoil the party as the pair contest for the Fremont Cannon.
Our Nevada vs. UNLV prediction has the latest odds, lines, and game picks in a decisive game in the Mountain West with potential College Football Playoff implications.
Nevada vs. UNLV Betting Preview
All Nevada vs. UNLV odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 29, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UNLV -19.75 - Spread
UNLV -18 - Moneyline
Nevada +600, UNLV -900 - Over/Under
55.5 - Game Time
8:00 p.m. ET - Location
Allegiant Stadium | Paradise, Nev. - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, mostly cloudy, 1 mph winds (indoors) - How To Watch
CBS Sports Network
The Battle for Nevada will be played for the 50th time in 2024, with the Wolf Pack leading the all-time series 28-21. However, it is the Rebels who head into this season’s matchup with all the momentum.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
UNLV is 9-2 on the season and ranked 22nd by the playoff committee. Meanwhile, Nevada has a 3-9 record and has lost five straight games. Jeff Choate’s team is looking to avoid losing 10 games in a season for the third successive year, but it will have its work cut out against Barry Odom’s side, which has won nine games for the second straight season.
Unsurprisingly, the betting lines reflect UNLV’s dominance. The Rebels are -18 with the oddsmakers, while the CFN FPM makes them even stronger favorites and has the spread set at -19.75.
Nevada’s Winning Probability
The CFN FPM gives the Wolf Pack little chance of winning the Battle for Nevada, with the metric giving a 6.9% chance of victory to Nevada on Saturday. It reflects a disappointing season for Nevada, which only defeated the Troy Trojans, Eastern Washington Eagles, and Oregon State Beavers in 2024.
at UNLV: 6.9%
UNLV’s Winning Probability
UNLV is hugely favored to retain the Fremont Cannon at home in Allegiant Stadium. The CFN FPM gives the Rebels a 93.1% chance of defeating their in-state rivals and progressing to the Mountain West Conference Football Championship Game.
vs. Nevada: 93.1%
Prediction for Nevada vs. UNLV
These two teams do not like each other. While UNLV is the superior team, they must be careful as their in-state foes would love nothing more than to upset their season.
UNLV essentially has its future in its own hands. Defeat the Wolf Pack on Saturday, and the Rebels will almost assuredly head to the Mountain West championship game and face the Boise State Broncos, as they currently hold tiebreakers in their favor over the Colorado State Rams.
This sets up the Mountain West’s tile game as essentially a win-and-in scenario for the College Football Playoff as the highest-ranked Group of Five champion with Tulane losing to Memphis on Thanksgiving.
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This adds further pressure and importance to this matchup as UNLV’s high-powered attack looks to retain the Fremont Cannon. They are the superior team and should have the firepower to overwhelm Nevada in Allegiant Stadium.
That is because the Wolf Pack has struggled to defend the run in 2024 and ranks 103rd in the nation, allowing 180.5 rushing yards per game. That statistic could be ominous, with the Rebels having one of the best rushing attacks in the country, ranked ninth, averaging 224.4 rush yards per game.
Running backs Jai’Den Thomas, Kylin James, and Greg Burrell have complemented each other perfectly, with Thomas closing in on 700 yards this season. Meanwhile, quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams is also a threat on the ground, rushing for eight touchdowns in 2024.
If Nevada is to succeed, it will have to make explosive plays at a high rate, and that won’t be easy. The Wolf Pack will have to outperform their average of 21.5 points per game and must succeed when in the red zone.
Luckily, Choate’s team ranks 23rd in the nation in red-zone scoring, but they come up against a UNLV defense that is one of the best that Nevada has faced this season and has limited opponents to 0.322 points per play.
Prediction: UNLV 34, Nevada 20
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