The SMU Mustangs have already booked their spot in the ACC Championship Game. Still, they will take on an efficient California Golden Bears team in the final week of the regular season, looking to convince the College Football Playoff Selection Committee they are worthy of a playoff spot regardless of the title game’s outcome.
Could Cal keep this one close and keep the Mustangs fans biting their nails? Our California vs. SMU Prediction has the latest odds and picks for the ACC matchup.
California vs. SMU Betting Preview
All California vs. SMU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 29, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
SMU – 11.75 - Spread
SMU -13 - Moneyline
California +330, SMU -424 - Over/Under
55.5 - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 30, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Gerald J. Ford Stadium | University Park, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, mostly sunny, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
Cal and SMU clash for the second time in history in their first years in the ACC. The Mustangs won the first meeting 13-6 in Berkeley, Calif., in 1957 and enter their second matchup against the Golden Bears as heavy favorites.
Rhett Lashlee’s team is a 13-point favorite to win its regular-season finale, with the CFN FPM slightly lower at -11.75. Cal hasn’t beaten a top-10-ranked team on the road since 1969, leaving bettors expecting SMU to prevail.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
However, Cal hasn’t lost a game by more than 10 points all season. The Bears have covered the spread in three of four road games in 2024, while both teams have been prolific in hitting the over.
The over has been met in five of SMU’s six home games this season, with games involving Cal having gone over in three of their last five matchups.
California’s Winning Probability
The Bears are coming off an emotional rivalry game win over Stanford, which saw them become bowl-eligible for the third time under Justin Wilcox. However, the CFN FPM gives Cal little hope of repeating last week’s heroics. The metric gives them a slim 18.9% chance of victory on the road in Texas.
at SMU: 18.9%
SMU’s Winning Probability
SMU is one of the most in-form teams in the country. They enter Week 14 having won eight straight games, earning a ninth-place ranking from the CFP. The Mustangs are rightly the unreserved favorites to win on Saturday afternoon, with the CFN FPM giving them an 81.1% chance of defeating Cal and finishing the year with 11+ wins for a second straight season.
vs. California: 81.1%
Prediction for California vs. SMU
SMU is the clear favorite to defeat Cal. The offense is ranked seventh nationally in average points per game (37.3) and can uncork explosive plays at any moment.
Kevin Jennings’ mobility has added a different dimension to the Mustangs’ passing attack, taking over from Preston Stone as the starter in their fourth game. Meanwhile, the running game has been more than effective, with Brashard Smith rushing for over 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns.
The defense has been equally as impressive under defensive coordinator Scott Symons. The Ponies have allowed 57.33% of passes to be completed against them, ranking a respectable 25th in the country. Additionally, SMU is elite against the run, allowing only 2.9 yards per rush, ranking sixth nationally.
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Although this game could get out of hand, there is hope that Cal can keep it tighter than the spread suggests. Cal has been in most games this season. With a 6-5 record, its win total could have looked much healthier if not for losses to Miami, Pittsburgh, and NC State in October coming by a combined four points.
Fernando Mendoza has thrown for over 3,000 yards in 2024, with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions. The Golden Bears’ QB rarely turns the ball over. However, Cal’s defense will need to step up if they are to stay in this game. It is one of the most challenging defenses that SMU will have come across this season, ranked 27th in points per game (21.5) and 19th in points per play (0.302).
This won’t be a gimme for the Mustangs, but there is too much riding on this game to imagine they take their foot off the gas. That isn’t how Lashlee has built and coached this team. SMU will want to end the regular season with a high when heading into the ACC Championship Game and, likely, the playoffs.
Prediction: SMU 35, Cal 23
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