The Georgia Bulldogs handled their business so early in the season that they sat back and cruised past UMass in Week 13 while the rest of the SEC dismantled one another. Now, Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate remains.
With an appearance in the SEC Championship Game secured, the Bulldogs are a win away from returning to the College Football Playoffs.
Georgia’s SEC Championship Chances
So, the Bulldogs’ chances to ‘make the SEC Championship Game’ are secured. Those are 100%, but what about their chances to win?
We used our simulation model to simulate the rest of the SEC’s schedule in Week 14 and find out Georgia’s opponent in the title game. Then we simmed the game itself based on all those opponents.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Using our CFN Playoff Predictor gave Georgia a 49.33% chance to win the SEC Championship Game against Texas or Texas A&M.
How Did Georgia Clinch the SEC Championship Game?
The Bulldogs have secured their spot in the SEC Championship Game thanks to tiebreakers. In the worst-case scenario, Georgia will enter as the second-place seed and take on Texas, provided the Longhorns defeat Texas A&M.
In the best-case scenario, Georgia will head into the SEC Championship Game as the second-place seed against Texas A&M, assuming the Aggies beat the Longhorns in Week 14.
Here’s a breakdown of how the tiebreakers work:
- Head-to-head
- Record against all common SEC opponents
- Record against highest-placed common SEC opponents
- Cumulative SEC winning percentage of all SEC opponents
Essentially, the head-to-head is thrown out between Texas A&M and Georgia as the two didn’t play. With Tennessee still technically in the mix as a two-loss team, if the Vols win against Vanderbilt, the tiebreaking scenarios automatically go to the fourth scenario due to lack of common opponents and head-to-head action.
At that point, we’d get to the cumulative SEC winning percentage of all SEC opponents.
- Texas:
Mississippi State (0-7)
Oklahoma (2-5)
Georgia (6-2)
Vanderbilt (3-4)
Florida (4-4)
Arkansas (3-4)
Kentucky (1-7)
Texas A&M (5-2)- SEC Opponent Conference Record: 24-33 (42.1%)
- A&M:
Florida (4-4)
Arkansas (3-4)
Missouri (4-3)
Mississippi State (0-7)
LSU (4-3)
South Carolina (5-3)
Auburn (2-5)
Texas (6-1)- SEC Opponent Conference Record: 28-30 (48.3%)
- Georgia:
Kentucky (1-7)
Alabama (4-3)
Auburn (2-5)
Mississippi State (0-7)
Texas (6-1)
Florida (4-4)
Ole Miss (4-3)
Tennessee (5-2)- SEC Opponent Conference Record: 26-32 (44.8%)
- Tennessee:
Oklahoma (2-5)
Arkansas (3-4)
Florida (4-4)
Alabama (4-3)
Kentucky (1-7)
Mississippi State (0-7)
Georgia (6-2)
Vanderbilt (3-4)- SEC Opponent Conference Record: 23-36 (38.9%)
As it stands, entering Week 14, Texas A&M would win tiebreaker No. 4, and Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee, or just Georgia and Texas, would move to the top of the tiebreaker. Georgia would win the head-to-head tiebreaker against Texas singularly or against Texas and Tennessee combined since the Bulldogs defeated both programs earlier this year.
It’s important to note that yes, Texas A&M has a better opponent SEC winning percentage, but there is no scenario that A&M and Georgia are tied with only one spot open for the SEC Championship. Therefore, A&M would ‘win’ the tiebreaker over Georgia, but there would still be a second-place finish open, and Georgia owns the singular tiebreakers against Texas and Tennessee easily.
No matter how it’s sliced, the Bulldogs are in the SEC Championship Game because of their work done this year (and Ole Miss and Alabama losing in Week 13).
Latest Georgia Playoff Probability Following Week 13
Despite locking in their spot, the Bulldogs saw their playoff chances take a slight hit after Week 13. They entered the weekend with a 41.77% chance to make the playoffs, but with a potential playoff-elimination game looming against Texas or Texas A&M, Georgia may need to win the SEC Championship to secure their spot.
A three-loss SEC runner-up could challenge conventional thinking, especially with recent conference losses to Ole Miss and Alabama, combined with out-of-conference defeats to Colorado and BYU, adding to the chaos for at-large bids.
While UGA should still make it, there’s a real chance that a loss in the SEC Championship could leave them on the outside looking in.
Bulldogs’ Remaining Schedule
Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, we take a look at the remaining games for the Bulldogs, but with our projected winning probability attached.
- vs. Georgia Tech: 82.6%
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