It was just a week ago that the Colorado Buffaloes’ postseason hopes took a massive hit thanks to a loss at the hands of the Kansas Jayhawks. But after a BYU loss at the same time, the Buffs’ postseason chances are pretty simple if they win in Week 14.
The tiebreakers, however, aren’t too kind to Colorado, so they need the most help to make the Big 12 Championship Game.
Colorado’s Big 12 Championship Chances
Entering Week 13, Colorado had a 46.39% chance of winning the Big 12 but now has just a 22.60% chance. Here how the odds stack up to win the conference:
- Arizona State 40.32%
- Colorado 22.60%
- BYU 21.40%
- Iowa State 9.74%
- TCU 4.71%
- Kansas 0.28%
- Kansas State 0.12%
- Texas Tech <0.01%
- Baylor <0.01%
- West Virginia <0.01%
The Buffaloes aren’t automatically in the Big 12 Championship Game with a win, however, as they need some help from the others who are tied with two conference losses. The tiebreakers are clear for Colorado’s chances.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Those tiebreaking scenarios leave the Buffaloes with only one option to make the Big 12 Championship Game.
How Can Colorado Make the Big 12 Championship Game?
With Arizona State knocking off BYU and Kansas simultaneously defeating Colorado, the Big 12 race is now between four teams tied with two losses in conference play. These four teams and their probability to make and win the Big 12 Championship Game:
- Arizona State 40.32%
- Colorado 22.60%
- BYU 21.40%
- Iowa State 9.74%
Let’s break that down a bit further.
Right now, if all four teams finish the season tied, it would be Arizona State that makes the Big 12 Championship. That means if Arizona State beats Arizona in Week 14, they’re in.
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And for Colorado, unfortunately, if all four teams win in Week 14, it would be the Buffaloes who end up as the fourth-place team in the Big 12 thanks to the tiebreaking scenarios.
Arizona State holds the top tiebreaker among the four teams, with Iowa State securing the second spot. This means Colorado’s path to the Big 12 Championship Game hinges on any two of the other three teams losing in Week 14.
To simplify, here are the scenarios that would send Colorado to the Big 12 title game:
- Colorado win, Iowa State win, Arizona State loss, BYU loss
Colorado would play Iowa State - Colorado win, Iowa State loss, Arizona State win, BYU loss
Colorado would play Arizona State - Colorado win, Iowa State loss, Arizona State loss, BYU win
Colorado would play BYU
If any two of the tied teams win, Colorado’s Big 12 Championship hopes would be dashed. However, thanks to the odds of our simulation model, it still likes the Buffaloes to win the Big 12 if they face either of these tied teams and give them the highest probability of winning their Week 14 matchup.
They just need some luck to get there.
Latest Colorado Playoff Probability Ahead of Week 14
Right now, the Buffaloes have a 23.74%% chance of making the playoffs. That’s largely thanks to the fact that they have a 23.58% chance to win the conference, which would punch their automatic ticket.
The remaining minuscule amount is as an at-large team, which is a long shot at this point.
Colorado has to beat Oklahoma State and then beat whoever makes the title game opposite them.
Colorado’s Remaining Schedule
- vs. Oklahoma State: 89.8%
- Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Arizona State: 64.1%
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